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Facebook: Maybe I'm Not So Stupid After All

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- When it comes to my investments and due diligence - much of which I am privileged to share with you in my writing -- nobody is harder on me than I am on myself. Allow me to just get that out of the way.

However, I do understand that being the public figure that I have become certainly draws its share of criticism. Sometimes I take it with a grain of salt and other times . . . well, let's just say being wrong and being reminded by readers that you were wrong has a way of humbling a person. It introduces doubt about one's own ability to do that which he thinks he is good at -- I hope that made sense.

Earlier this week when discussing the recent trading activity of social media giant Facebook (FB - Get Report), I was forced to ask myself If I'm So Smart, Why Do I Feel So Stupid? I asked this for no other reason than the fact that I was dealing with a great deal of regret -- something that I am sure that you can probably relate to. Three days after exiting my position with a 22% gain at what I thought was the top at $31.20, the stock closed last Friday above $33 for an extra 7% gain.

This prompted ridiculing emails throughout the weekend calling me stupid -- I had no choice but to believe it. After all, I'm supposed to have been the pro trader -- the person that perfectly timed the bottom at $25.

So imagine my frustration once the stock hit $33 with no meaningful signs of slowing down. Readers wanted an opportunity to get back at me for calling them bitter haters that arrived too early to the party. They wanted that opportunity and they got it. Even more painful was the fact that I had an entire weekend to think about it -- Monday couldn't come fast enough.

At that point, I realized that the fanaticism attached to the stock had reached an all-time high to the extent that it has now prompted writers to ask if Facebook is better than sex.

First of all, no it isn't and secondly, I'm realizing that Facebook has acquired the same cultish interest that mirrors the likes of Apple (AAPL), Research in Motion (RIMM) and Sirius XM (SIRI) -- names that have made many look pretty foolish over the years both on the long and short side.

A Measure of Discipline

However, today -- a full week later, in assessing the current status of the stock, it seems that I'm not so stupid after all. Since reaching a near-term high of $33.45 on June 22 the stock has now fallen below my sale level -- essentially giving back the all of the 7 percent that I had left on the table.

Is there cause for joy? Perhaps and perhaps not. What I'm realizing is that as fast and as furious as the stock had fallen, it was certain to gain a considerable momentum bounce -- which it did. But momentum is only as good as your next trade. Clearly $33.45 was the near-term top and the question is, where is it heading next?
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