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HSBC Global Connections Trade Report: U.S. Trade Outlook Improves Short- And Longer-Term

U.S. companies are forecast to increase trade activity by 4.7 percent annually during the next decade as export growth rises with emerging market nations where a shift to consumption is underway, according to a new report released today by HSBC Commercial Banking.

The HSBC Global Connections Trade Forecast, which examines global trade trends during the next five, 10 and 15 years, also finds that U.S. trade growth is forecast to rise 95 percent by 2026, broadly in line with the global trade forecast during the same period.

HSBC’s global trade forecast, produced in association with Delta Economics and covering trade trends occurring in every region of the world, including 20 individual countries, further reveals:
  • Despite ongoing global economic difficulties, notably in Europe, global trade is forecast to grow at a robust rate of 4.7 percent annually during the next 15 years
  • In next five years, U.S. export growth is expected to rise fastest with emerging market countries, including Peru at 8.7 percent, followed by Turkey and Brazil, both of which are expected to see growth of better than 8 percent
  • Annual growth rate of U.S. exports to China are forecasted to outpace U.S. imports from China during next five years
  • China and Germany are set to leapfrog the United States to become the world’s largest importers by 2026
  • Intra-regional trade continues to be an important driver for U.S. companies, with Canada and Mexico, the United States’ top two export partners and two and three for imports, playing a significant role in the nation’s trade flows
  • Biopharmaceuticals and telecommunications equipment are forecasted during the next five years as the two fastest growing non-commodity U.S. exports respectively, growing at 8.6 and 6.7 percent annually

In the shorter-term, the companion HSBC Trade Confidence Index (TCI), conducted twice a year for HSBC (NYSE:HBC) by TNS, finds U.S.-based importers and exporters are very confident about their expected trade volumes during the next six months. The TCI reveals 59 percent of them anticipate an overall increase in trade volumes, up 10 percent from the last TCI released in October 2011. U.S. businesses are also more optimistic about the state of the global economy with 44 percent expecting it to improve by year end, up from only 29 percent that held that same view in the second half of 2011.

“Traditional export-driven economies in ‘emerging’ markets are becoming more consumer-driven and importing more from high-end developed nation producers like the United States to fulfill demand,” said Steve Bottomley, Senior Executive Vice President, Head of Commercial Banking, HSBC, North America. “U.S. businesses should not ignore this important shift, and growth driver, but instead position themselves to become beneficiaries of this opportunity that is expected to help fuel global trade for many years to come.”

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