Microsoft, Nokia Get No Respect; Apple Gets Too Much

I would have been concerned had Microsoft decided not to produce its own hardware. That would have projected the complacent image that the company felt better about making an easy buck over situating itself for the future.

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Finally, a tech company makes original and legitimate attempts to compete, and a majority of observers argue that it either should have remained loyal or was somehow obligated to inform companies like HP and Dell of their intentions? If HP and Dell could not see the writing on the wall, they have bigger troubles than originally thought.

The market continues to ding Nokia because Lumia early adopters (I am one of them) will not be able to upgrade to Windows 8 on their current smartphones. Instead, you'll get Windows 7.8 as well as Nokia's own upgrade on current Lumia smartphones. Based on reports of what these updates will include, it's clear that the media has set off a small bit of outrage for no real reason.

Furthermore, given the relatively small base of Lumia owners, the upgrade/no upgrade-related implications are practically nil. If every Lumia owner running Windows 7.8 upgraded to a Windows 8 Phone, it would not move the needle much. And if every current Lumia owner got angry over the situation (they won't because there really is no situation), it would not affect the bottom line at all.

For months, the media and almost every Wall Street or tech analyst I have come across has missed the point. They continue to miss it. The current iteration of Windows Phones was a dry run. It was never intended to be the make it or break it run so many folks, often blinded by Apple lust, made it out to be.

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This fall, it's go time. Nokia will have its fate sealed by this time next year, if not sooner. Microsoft will either fade into permanent irrelevancy or emerge as a formidable threat and a renewed player in the broad tech space.

I have my money behind Windows 8 driving success at both Microsoft and Nokia. That's not necessarily the right play for all investors. You make your own choices.

That said, be careful if you're investing on today's prevalent sentiment. We have yet to even go through the full batting order. It's early in the game. I expect the vibe to shift considerably in the next 6 to 12 months as Apple underwhelms and Microsoft over-delivers.

At the time of publication, Pendola was long MSFT and NOK.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

At the time of publication, Pendola was long MSFT and NOK.

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