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Don't Walk, Run Away From Gold, Silver

India is a large net oil importer, and the biggest help India can receive to shore up the struggling rupee is a fall in the price of energy. Unfortunately for gold bulls, that is the last thing that will help gold. The cost of almost all goods and services are impacted by the price of energy, and lower energy costs equal lower inflationary pressure.

The impact of a stronger dollar is not limited to India. The Euro has fallen in the backdrop of various budgetary and economic implosions. In their attempt to keep the wheels from falling off, the European Central Bank resembles a player in the advanced stages of a "Whack-a-Mole" game. Each time the ECB uses their monetary hammer in response to the latest crisis popping up, another crisis pops up just as quickly.

The problems in Europe may give the false illusion that a flight to safe havens including gold will cause the demand for gold to increase; thereby causing the price to move higher. In a vacuum, monetary crises with multiple sovereign nations may indeed increase some types of gold demand. Where the higher gold demand theory derails are the casuistry or aberration of believing overall gold demand will increase. Those touting a flight to safety are performing a disservice for anyone listening.

Jewelry production is the greatest consumer of gold by far. Failing economies do not lend themselves to greater gold demand. Furthermore, relative to the drop in price gold has experienced in America, gold has not fallen as much in Europe due to the declining value of the Euro. Gold is trading for about 100 Euros off the all-time highs, compared to $300 off the high.

The impact on gold miners appears clear. Barrick Gold (ABX - Get Report), Goldcorp (GG), Anglogold Ashanti (AU), and Newmont Mining (NEM - Get Report) are near 52-week lows. One notable exception is Yamana Gold (AUY).

Yamana Gold recently opened up their checkbook and bought Extorre Gold Mines (XG). It remains to be seen if Extorre Gold is a sound investment or not. Extorre Gold is located in Argentina, and Argentinian President Cristina Kirchner has demonstrated an eagerness to place her own political career ahead of a free Argentinian capital market, stressing businesses there.
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GLD $123.73 2.00%
GDX $25.81 6.30%
SLV $16.96 1.10%
ABX $19.37 10.00%
NEM $34.90 5.80%


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