NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- In this article, I deal with two related issues:
Last Friday saw Tesla's first customer deliveries of its Model S to non-insiders. The goal is to ramp production from one car per day now, to 80 cars per day by November, for a total of 5,000 delivered by the end of the year. Next year, the goal is to deliver at least 20,000 cars, probably with some upside from the Model X minivan, which launches at the end of 2013.The Tesla investment-expectations setup to Friday's event was a barbell's worth of extremes. On the one hand, some people were extremely optimistic and enthusiastic about the prospects for the Model S. I am clearly one of them. Yet others were extremely bearish on Tesla. Short interest is said to have been as high as 24%. The question is why? Why were so many people so extremely bearish about the Tesla Model S? I think I've figured it out. It wasn't that the bears were so pessimistic about Tesla as a company, or specifically the Model S. It was that they didn't think electric cars -- any electric car -- could be successful. And with Tesla being the market's pure play on electric cars, how could you go wrong in shorting it? Here is what I found: Most critics of electric cars have never driven one. They confuse the entirely different issue of political aversion to subsidies and other interventions in the market -- that I agree are always bad -- with the notion that an electric car can have overwhelming positive performance attributes. Alternatively, they are skeptical of new technology in general, always magnifying a few narrow drawbacks of a new technology, while ignoring the revolutionary implications of looking at "the whole forest." For an almost perfect analogy, I remember the smartphone debate back in 2000 and 2001: Being an early BlackBerry user, I said almost everyone would want email on their phone, as well as a great keyboard on which to type. I was told that this might be a market for a few thousand Wall Street bankers, lawyers and high government officials, that's all. The 1%.
Check Out Our Best Services for Investors
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Model portfolio
- Stocks trading below $10
- Intraday trade alerts