NEW YORK (ETF Expert) -- Most Americans believe that the economy is on the wrong track. For that matter, Bill Clinton believes the country is in a recession.
Polls don't typically delve into why people believe the economy is in bad shape. However, it's a pretty safe guess that citizens see declining home values and poor job prospects when making their assessments.
Not surprisingly, then, most people cringed at the White House's assertion that the private sector is "doing just fine." Granted, President Obama had been addressing relative hiring in his statement to the media (i.e., private payroll jobs versus government/public jobs). Yet, that's as dissatisfying as the mutual fund manager who touts losing -33% in 2008 when the Standard & Poor's 500 relinquished -8%.
What's more, businesses are practically paralyzed when it comes to the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election. Typically, voters feel more comfortable, more certain, sticking with an incumbent. However, polls regularly show that Americans trust Romney more than Obama on improving the economy.So why haven't U.S. stocks corrected more than -9.9% with a slow-growing economy, dangerous signs from the employment front and Obama still favored to win the general election in November? Why is the S&P 500 actually up 4.1% year-to-date... in spite of weakening GDP in China and a never-ending series of signs that the eurozone might crumble? Some have suggested that the more negative the economic indicators, the better the chances for Mitt Romney. They also suggest that Romney would be infinitely better for corporations as well as shareholders. Is it because Romney brings greater certainty to the taxation/regulation table, freeing up the decision-making of corporate leadership? Is it possible that we'll see a Romney rally in stocks here in 2012? Are we already seeing "stealth support" at key trendlines and important psychological declines (the "10% correction") because of the challenger? I think it goes deeper than the psychology behind Romney's chances. I think it goes more to a probable Republican victory if Romney picks Marco Rubio as a running mate. U.S. Sen. Rubio virtually assures that the GOP would win one of the most important prizes of the Electoral College: Florida. He increases voter turnout by firing up conservatives in the Republican Party. Rubio helps with Hispanic votes in swing states like Nevada and may make President Obama campaign harder in places like California. He (Rubio) appeals to women and minorities in ways that Romney does not.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass + 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV