The broad indexes all saw solid gains, amid continued expectations for coordinated action by G-20 central banks next week, if needed, following this week's Greek elections, amid continued uncertainty if the country will be able to form a government supporting previously agreed upon austerity measures, required for a second eurozone bailout.
Credit Suisse global equity strategist Andrew Garthwaite said early on Monday that if the anti-austerity Syriza party wins Greece's elections, "the probability of Greek exit [from the euro] would rise to around 50%," and that "if a Syriza-led government sticks to a hard-line stance, we believe equity markets would fall by around 10%." On the other hand, if "a Syriza-led coalition compromises or if there is a unity government, we think markets fall by [approximately] 5% - but then rally."
Garthwaite added that if Greece's New Democracy party "forms a coalition, we expect a [roughly] 3-5% rally in markets, which then fades."Back home, the Federal Reserve reported that industrial production during May declined 0.1%, after increasing a revised 0.1% during April. The central bank said that "A decrease of 0.4 percent for manufacturing production in May partially reversed a large increase in April," and that "outside of manufacturing, the output of mines advanced 0.9 percent in May, while the output of utilities rose 0.8 percent." Total U.S industrial production during May was 4.7% higher than a year earlier. The KBW Bank Index (I:BKX) rose 1.5% to close at 44.72, with all 24 index components ending the week with gains. Bank of America's shares have now returned 42% year-to-date, after dropping 58% during 2011. The shares trade for 0.6 times their reported March 31 tangible book value of $12.87, and for less than eight times the consensus 2013 earnings estimate of $1.01 a share, among analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. The consensus 2012 EPS estimate is 59 cents. Credit Suisse analyst Andrew Marquardt on June 3 upgraded Bank of America to an "Overweight" rating, with a $10 price target, after the shares closed at $7.02 on June 1.
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