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My Favorite Tech Stock Rocks - Even in This Market

I am neither a day trader, nor a buy and holder. I am in between these two. I like to rotate with the market. I wrote about how to avoid crashing as the market rotates" three weeks ago here on TheStreet.

I also wrote an article last November, calling Apple the cheapest growth stock in the entire market. The stock was trading at $376.12 at the time. I showed my calculations on arriving at an $818 target price in the article. The same formula that I used can be applied to Apple's numbers today to calculate a current target price for the shares. Needless to say, Apple soared to $644 over the next five months for a gain of 71.2%. I caught the whole move and sold half of my position right around $600. I still own the other half.

I wrote about Dollar Tree last November when the stock was trading at $81.66. The title of the article was "Look for Dollar Tree to Double Again." I went through the same valuation exercise that I performed on Apple. If you have trouble doing the valuation work on stocks, you may want to check these articles out. I also spent a few years as a stock analyst, writing up research reports on various companies. Dollar Tree continues to hit new highs and today it is trading at just over $100 per share.

I now have a 145% gain in Dollar Tree, and I continue to own it. I talked about how to find stocks like Dollar Tree in another article that I wrote earlier this year. You may want to check it out. I am neither a value investor nor a momentum investor -- I am both.

In very simple terms, value investors usually could care less about momentum (performance), and momentum investors usually don't give a hoot about value. Over the years, I have found flaws in both of these styles of investing. I have seen way to many value traps over the years, and I have seen way to many high flyers crash and burn.

I like to combine performance with value. The best way I can show you what I mean by this is to give an example. I stated earlier that I was going to feature my favorite tech stock at the current time. So, here we go...

Austin, Texas based Cirrus Logic (CRUS - Get Report) develops and sells high-precision analog and mixed signal integrated circuits for audio and energy markets worldwide. Its audio products are used in smartphones, tablets, home theater systems, blue-ray players, and many other consumer electronics applications. The stock is a small-cap, and as I stated earlier suitable for investors seeking aggressive growth amongst a well-diversified portfolio. I generally like my individual positions to be about 4%-5% of my overall portfolios.

Let's first begin with the performance of the stock over the years:

As you can see, the stock has delivered some very stellar returns over the years to its shareholders. The stock has clobbered the performance of the S&P 500 over the last 1, 3, 5 and 10 years. Compare these returns with some of the big, old, stodgy technology stocks like Cisco (CSCO), Microsoft (MSFT), and Intel (INTC).

I wrote about avoiding such big, widely held duds in another recent article that I wrote here on The Street. I was also interviewed by Joe Mont, a writer for The Street back in May of last year on this subject. At that time, I mentioned three stocks. They were Dollar Tree, AutoZone and Those stocks have soared since that interview. Maybe that is why I am now writing for The Street.

When I compare the performance of Cirrus against almost 2,800 stocks, it scores a performance grade of "A-". As I mentioned earlier, I like to combine performance with value. Then we have the best of both worlds. It is only appropriate that we should next look at the valuation for Cirrus Logic.

As you can see, the stock is currently trading at just 12.7 times next year's earnings estimates. The consensus five-year growth rate expectation among analysts is 20% per year for the next five years. It should be noted that Cirrus has been growing its earnings by an average of 58% per year over the last five years. No wonder the stock has done so well!

If Cirrus can hit their consensus estimate of $2.16 per share next year, and indeed grow their earnings at an average clip of 20% per year over the next five years, then the company would be earning $4.54 five years from now. Using a reasonable multiple of 12.5 on those earnings, I come up with a five year target price of $57 per share.
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