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Sirius XM Is Not Alone Anymore

So, in essence, its failures are now worth more than its successes. If that is not an indictment of any company, I don't know what is.

For investors who continue to think Liberty cares about the stock, as I have said recently it has already gotten the cake. The stock will likely continue to fall and Liberty will continue to (as retailers like to say) "back up the truck" -- except, it has little to no risk in when it buys.

The Bottom Line

Underestimating the competition is one of the biggest mistakes that any investor can make, second only to not fully understanding the business of what you are buying.

Remarkably, Sirius investors continue to show a complete disregard for these two concepts and forget they are buying a business, not just a stock. So going back to Buffett's quote suggesting a stock will do well if a business does well, investors need to ask themselves: How well has Sirius really been doing?

Does it matter where it counts? What's the point of subscriber growth and rising FCF that yield little in profits? If the service is so great, why have 11 million people canceled over the past two years while net subscribers have only grown by 3 million since 2009?

Is the business really doing well? We'll find out once Samsung gets going.

At the time of publication, the author was long AAPL and held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned, although positions may change at any time.
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