For example, Zynga (ZNGA) generates roughly five times more revenue per user on the desktop than it does via mobile. A relative pioneer in mobile -- thanks largely to Apple's iPhone -- Pandora's (P) gap stands at a respectable 1.7 times more desktop ARPU (average revenue per user) than mobile APRU.
After showing how the lag time between mobile usage/clicks and monetization puts a drag on revenue at Google (GOOG) and Facebook (FB), Meeker argues that it's likely just a matter of time before mobile monetization equals revenue generated on the desktop.
She then drives the preceding points home with a force so strong even Jim Balsillie could comprehend it. Let's consider a few of the keys from Slide 25 of Meeker's already-epic talk:
- In her words, "Desktop Internet Proved Ad $ Follow Eyeballs, it Just Takes Time."
- Meeker shows APRU at $9 on the desktop in 1995; $49 in 2011.
- She argues that "Mobile monetization has more going for it than Early Desktop Monetization had ..."
- More rapid user growth on mobile.
- Rapid growth of mobile e-commerce.
- Meeker believes mobile monetization levels in the US could pass desktop numbers within 1 to 3 years.
That last point is worth repeating: Mobile monetization levels in the U.S. could pass desktop numbers within 1 to 3 years.If Meeker did not put the writing on the wall for the world with her presentation, nothing will.
Back to the FutureSimply put, companies like Apple, Google and Amazon.com (AMZN) represent stocks you wish you had bought two, three, five, 10 years ago. (Good work if you did). You have to do what best suits your situation as an investor, parent, spouse and human, but I am not letting the next phase pass me by. While I collected profits on stocks like AAPL and AMZN on the way up, I would have much rather bought on a regular basis and held while cynics doubted their collective ability to reshape society. That's exactly what Facebook, Zynga and Pandora are doing. They're changing the way we interact and consume entertainment in different parts of our independent and shared worlds. It's beyond powerful. The more I write about the incredible mobile transformation taking place across the globe, the more bullish I get. Some readers will squawk because I do not attach a whole slew of quantitative metrics to my prediction that FB, ZNGA and P will become $100 stocks. As TheStreet's Marek Fuchs likes to say, they just don't get it! The concept of valuation, particularly the various measures of it, means very little in practice. It might have in your grandfather's stock market, but not this one.
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