Then, something changed. Since the end of the last market turmoil in December of 2011 something strange happened, the VIX sold off, but the TLT did not. The spread between TLT and VIX has widened and widened. Where in every other crisis the spread should have stretched to near 80 and then eased back to 70 or so, the VIX has eased, bonds have not.
Something has to give. Either the bonds have to come in or the VIX needs to explode. The VIX had been on a consistent downtrend throughout the year (and I still think it will be going much lower by year's end).