NEW YORK ( Real Money) -- We have the largest game of chicken going on that I can ever recall. On the one hand we have the adamant Germans who are not going to give an inch on the purse strings of Europe that they clearly control. On the other hand, there's every other country in the European Union that now thinks, because of the troubles in Spain and Italy, not just Greece, that bonds must be printed and money spent to grow the economies on the Continent, not just Germany.
Traders in this country cannot afford to miss the moment when Germany is pushed over the edge to save the Continent, something that is perceived to be inevitable, now that the French have turned on the Germans and the Spanish bond market implodes.
In the meantime, though, if they are in the market on a day when Merkel is tough and Spain falters and another country in Europe hits the radar screen as damaged, then they lose.
Today is a hope day. Today is a day when people expect the Germans to blink, in part because of the hopelessness of Spain but also because even Germany is worried about the world's economy right now. I think the Germans are worried that China is going to slow if it can't tap the European market, and that's bad for the whole globe.Now here is what is tricky. Without Europe, we have a good market made up of retailers, restaurants, utilities, companies that benefit from a decline in commodities caused by European weakness, and some health care stocks. With Europe we have everything, including tech, oils and the banks. Today is a "with Europe" day, and you can see how bountiful it is. Think about it: Europe has been the proximate cause of everything that has blown up or is about to blow up. We have seen it in apparel with Fossil (FOSL), where even the good Fossil names are unable to avoid the tug. We have seen it in tech with the semiconductor, personal computer and consulting firms. Amazing that Apple (AAPL) hasn't been scathed yet. We have seen it in banking ever since JPMorgan (JPM - Get Report) crushed the whole industry by being so heavily exposed to a runaway European train. We have seen it in capital goods, where every company that has any exposure is a heartbeat away from blowing up. That means companies as fine as Cummins (CMI - Get Report) and Boeing (BA) as well as Caterpillar (CAT) and Eaton (ETN).