All Eyes on Europe, Jobs Report in Coming Week
Year-to-date, the Dow is up 1.9%, the S&P 500 has gained 4.8%, and the Nasdaq has advanced nearly 9%. At a low of 12,289 during Wednesday's session, the Dow was within 75 points of going negative for 2012.
For his part, Mahn will be watching Germany's actions next week. Any idea on how to handle the deterioration of Greece's finances can't succeed without the support of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. That's why eurobonds -- which some other members of the European Monetary Union have advocated -- aren't likely to get any traction.
"If Germany no longer wants to participate in bailouts, Germany doesn't need the rest of Europe," Mahn said. "That's the biggest area of concern. I'll be watching German sentiment."
The euro visited close to two-year lows this week, but Street One market technician Dave Chojnacki thinks more downside lies ahead if it becomes more likely that Greece gets the boot or European banks start to see more people pulling out their assets.Stateside, the big news is expected to be the May jobs report next Friday. The current consensus is for nonfarm private payrolls to swell by 172,000, according to Briefing.com, a nice bump up from April's total of 130,000. "To move the market, the jobs number would have to swing wildly on the upside and mildly on downside," said Hennion & Walsh's Mahn. "I think in large part individual investors have been very skeptical of the  rally. Any more signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economic recovery, more concerns on Europe, issues with jobs and real estate, all that will feed into pessimism." The coming week's economic news also includes the Conference Board's read on consumer confidence for May on Tuesday. April's number came in at 69.2 and Briefing.com is forecasting an improvement to 71. The earnings calendar is light, with Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF), DryShips (DRYS) and Vera Bradley (VRA) among the companies expected to deliver their quarterly reports next week. DryShips is slated to open its books on Tuesday. On average, analysts anticipate the Athens-based drybulk carrier company will report a first-quarter loss of 2 cents a share on revenue of $267.76 million.
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