Stock Under $10 with 50-100% upside potential - 14 Days FREE!

Obama vs. Reagan in Five Charts

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Barack Obama should identify with Ronald Reagan's experiences when opponents question the current president's first term.

Three key economic indicators that threaten Obama's hopes in November posed similar problems during Reagan's first four years as commander in chief. Reagan ended up winning in one of the largest electoral landslides in U.S. history.

Ronald Reagan overcame a whole term of economic volatility to win in 1984

Unemployment, gross domestic product and S&P 500 performance all weigh on investors and voters as they prepare to select a president, so we tracked each indicator's quarterly results during Reagan's and Obama's first-terms.


Quarterly unemployment was above 10% at the end of four straight quarters during Reagan's first term -- the worst quarter-ending rate under Obama has been 9.9% -- but by May 22, 1984, the rate had dropped to 7.8%, or 0.4 percentage points lower than Obama's current rate.

Quarterly gross domestic product growth shows that Reagan oversaw a massive contraction from the first to the second quarter in 1981. When the former president entered office, the United States reported GDP percent change of 8.6% in the first quarter before a dive at -3.2% in the second quarter.

Obama hasn't seen that great of a drop, but he entered at a GDP bottom -- during his first quarter, it contracted by -6.7%, but slowly crept up to 3.9% growth by the first quarter of his second year.

Whereas Obama has sat on relatively flat quarter-to-quarter change in GDP, Reagan, after two straight quarters (fourth quarter of his first year, and first quarter of his second year) that saw contraction by -4.9% and -6.4%, enjoyed a healthy explosion. December of 1982 showed 0.3% growth, and by March of 1984 there was an 8% jump.

Then there's the health of the stock market as measured by the performance of the S&P 500. A glance at quarter-to-quarter volatility of the index shows a roller coaster of swings for both presidents' first terms.

The worst S&P slump during Reagan's first four years was an 11.5% drop from the June 1981 close to the September 1981 close. But the index gained 16.8% during its most robust period -- the end of September 1982 to the December 1982 close.


By comparison, Obama's saw the biggest S&P gains early -- it jumped 15.2% during the second quarter of his first year. But the S&P has also experienced double-digit losses in two quarters of Obama's presidency -- an 11.9% drop in the second quarter of 2010 and a 14.3% drop in third quarter of 2011.

The S&P closed on Reagan's Inauguration Day at 131.65 and it rose to 153.88 by May 22, 1984. That's a 16.9% gain.

On Obama's Inauguration Day, the index finished at 805.22. The index closed at 1,316.63 on Tuesday, marking a 63.4% gain.

-- Written by Joe Deaux in New York.

Select the service that is right for you!

COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Action Alerts PLUS
TRY IT FREE

Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
  • Weekly roundups
Dividend Stock Advisor
TRY IT FREE
New! $49.95/yr

Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
  • Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Stocks Under $10
TRY IT FREE

David Peltier, uncovers low dollar stocks with extraordinary upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
  • Weekly roundups
Real Money
TRY IT FREE

24/7 market commentary from Jim Cramer and 20+ veteran Wall Street gurus. Get access to the latest trading ideas on stocks, options, and ETFs as well as a real-time forum to see the pros exchanging their investment ideas.

Product Features:
  • Jim Cramer + 20 Wall Street pros
  • Intraday commentary & news
  • Real-time trading forum
  • Actionable trade ideas
Real Money Pro
TRY IT FREE

All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.

Product Features:
  • Real Money + Doug Kass + 15 more Wall Street Pros
  • Intraday commentary & news
  • Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Options Profits
TRY IT FREE

Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • 100+ monthly options trading ideas
  • Actionable options commentary & news
  • Real-time trading community
  • Options TV
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
DOW 15,294.50 -12.67 -0.08%
NASDAQ 3,459.42 -3.88 -0.11%
S&P 500 1,650.51 -4.84 -0.29%
US 10 Yr 2.023% -0.003

Brokerage Partners

Advertising Partners
Special Features

Free Newsletters from TheStreet

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

We respect your privacy. Manage Newsletters
Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs