Family Dollar Stores
One earnings short-squeeze candidate is Family Dollar Stores (FDO), which is set to release numbers on Wednesday before the market open. This company operates a chain of self-service retail discount stores primarily for low- and middle-income consumers in the U.S. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Family Dollar Stores to report revenue of $2.37 billion on earnings of $1.06 per share.
If you're looking for strong trending large-cap stock that's trading within range of its 52-week high heading into earnings, then make sure to check out shares of Family Dollar Stores. This stock is up over 12% so far in 2012, and its currently trading just 5 points off its 52-week high of $70 a share.The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Family Dollar Stores stands at 3%. That means that out of the 96.40 million shares in the tradable float, 3.33 million are sold short by the bears. This isn't a huge short interest, but if Family Dollar Stores can deliver what the bulls are looking for, then it could easily see a decent short-covering rally post-earnings. From a technical perspective, FDO is currently trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. During the last three months, this stock has soared from a low of $53.06 to its high of $70 a share. That move triggered a major breakout trade once FO took out $59.60 a share with monster upside volume. That said, shares of FDO have struggled during the last month to take out some near-term overhead resistance at around $68.50 to $70 a share. If you're bullish on FDO, I would look for long-biased trades if after it reports this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance at $67 a share high-volume. Look for volume on that move that registers near or well above its three-month average action of 1.6 million shares. If we get that action, then I would add to any long positions on FDO if it can manage to clear its 52-week high of $70 a share with high-volume. I would simply avoid FDO or look for short-biased trades if the stock fails to trigger that move over $67, and then drops back below some near-term support at its 50-day moving average of $63.80 and at $62.54 a share with high-volume. If we get that action, then look for FDO to possibly fall towards $60 to $58 a share if the bears spark a big-time selloff post-earnings. As of the most recently reported quarter, Family Dollar was one of Third Point's holdings and showed up in Bill Ackman's portfolio.
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