NEW YORK (
) -- Back on April 26, I wrote about the "Death Cross" for gold in
"Gold Under a Death Cross, How to Trade Mining Stocks."
Today we will take a longer term view of gold looking at the monthly chart going back to 1980, then look at the daily chart for the ETF with the symbol GLD to show that a short-term oversold rebound appears likely soon.
On April 26, the day I wrote the above story, Comex gold closed at $1,660.50 the Troy ounce giving traders and investors the opportunity to take advantage of the "Death Cross" by selling gold at my semiannual pivot at $1,659.40. Gold closed below my annual pivot at $1575.8, on Monday, May 14 which indicates risk to my monthly value level for May at $1,525.80, and this morning's low has been $1526.7. The $1,535 to $1,525 area appears the right price to start a long position or to cover a portion of a short position in the precious metal. There's an 85% chance for gold futures to return to the annual pivot at $1,575.80.
This is a short-term oversold rebound not a buy signal for the long term because the monthly chart for Comex gold is negative. As shown on the chart below, gold began 1980 with a spike to $873 the Troy ounce that January. Then gold moved sideways to down until the second half of 1999 with a low of $253.80 in August 1999.
Then in April 2003 gold started an up trend above its 120-month simple moving average. The parabolic bubble began to inflate in October 2009 with a breakout above the $1,000 per Troy ounce level. In a parabolic move, you never know how high a market can go, but you know that when the bubble breaks the downside is painful.
The all-time high at $1,923.70 was set on Sept. 6, 2011 and the low that month on Sept. 26 was $1,535 as the gold bubble popped by 20.2%. On Dec. 29, 2011 gold hit a slightly lower low at $1523.9. This is another reason to buy gold in the $1,535 to $1,525 range, which includes my monthly value level at $1,525.90.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson/Reuters
Trading Gold in the stock market
There are many ways to buy gold including bullion and coins. Bullion can be expensive to carry considering storage and insurance. Coins have a wide bid versus offer spread, so they are difficult to trade. You can "buy and trade" gold in the futures market, but I recommend trading
SPDR Gold Trust
and here's a look at the daily chart.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson/Reuters
The daily chart for GLD is oversold with the "Death Cross" shown beginning on April 17. To review the death cross occurs when the 50-day simple moving average falls below the 200-day. This is shown on the chart with cyan line (50-day) crossing below the green line (200-day). With GLD closing Tuesday at $149.74, I show my monthly value level at $148.28, an annual pivot at $151.22 and semiannual risky level at $159.05.
Conclusion: With gold back to the base of the parabolic move, that preceded the bubble, the time and price are right to cover shorts and begin a "buy and trade" strategy using GLD.
With my "buy and trade" strategy, you are always adding to positions on weakness to a Value Level and reducing positions on strength to a Risky Level. This is not labor-intensive. You simply enter "Good Until Canceled" GTC Limit Orders to buy at the value level and sell at the risky level. A "buy and trade" strategy allows you to capture the price volatility as stocks move up and down.