U.S. Housing Cannot Recover

Just think of the damage that has been done to the housing sector, as well as the national and global economies and financial markets, with only 3% of the probable foreclosures required as a result of the U.S. housing crash having been completed to date. Can you hear me now?

This is the biggest financial and economic disaster in U.S. history -- nothing else even comes close by comparison.

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2011, the outstanding value of mortgage loans tied to residential foreclosures already in OREO as a percentage of all loans outstanding at JPM, BAC, C, and WFC were 0.29%, 0.45%, 0.15%, and 0.35% respectively; very low and easily absorbed. However, the value of non-performing residential loans at these same institutions are 2.14%, 3.55%, 2.24%, and 3.10%, respectively.

If the probable losses associated with these loans had to be absorbed quickly by way of foreclosure and resale of the collateral property, the losses would almost certainly render all of these institutions insolvent and pummel housing values, the economy and global financial markets in the process.

Until there is a known plan for how to deal with this issue, I will remain negative on housing. Pretending the issue does not exist simply by not foreclosing and hoping that the economy will rebound to the extent necessary for housing values to increase and mortgagors to start making payments again is ludicrous.

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