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Facebook's 33% Chance of Success


Groupon was another popular IPO and one that is now currently trading at its 52-week low. The company provides a way for users to purchase deeply discounted vouchers for use at local businesses such as restaurants and salons. Does that make it a good investment?

Groupon first opened for trading on Nov. 4 at $20 and reached an all-time high of $31.14 while closing respectably upon its open price at $26.11. But unlike Pandora, it did not take long for panic to set in as the stock quickly dropped to the low teens of $14.85 only a few weeks after first going public. Today the stock trades at $10.31, down 60% since reaching $25.84 on Feb. 8 and down 67% from its 52-week high.

What investors quickly realized is that not only are the company's chances of earning a profit more in doubt, but competition is exceptionally fierce among existing titans such as Google, Amazon (AMZN) and a rejuvenated Yahoo! (YHOO). Clearly, it would take little to no investment at all from either of these names to launch a competing product to squash Groupon's chances of survival.

As with Facebook, its business model was relatively new but investors placed more value on the idea rather than the business. So the question is, will Facebook become a similar mistake?
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