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Will Apple's Stock Become Dead Money?

Contrast AAPL's near-term performance with that of Lululemon (LULU - Get Report), which dumped after what some analysts considered a lackluster earnings report. That stock powered to a 52-week high of $79.90 on Wednesday and notched another all-time high of $81.09 on Thursday, settling down to $80.30 at the close.

Now, make no mistake about several things. While I consider Lululemon one of the most exciting companies in the world right now, I am not comparing Lululemon the company with Apple the company. I am merely looking at LULU the stock vs. AAPL the stock. And I think the most ardent AAPL bulls should do the same type of thing.

AAPL seemed to have found support at its 50-day moving average, but LULU blew right through that marker. It showed remarkable strength on what was a bad day for the market pretty much across the board.

Friday is a critical day for AAPL; it needs to regain, pass, sustain and close higher than that 50-day. If it does not, it's not the end of the world, but do not expect the right side of AAPL's chart to look like it does on the six-month or one-year iteration.

If you're an AAPL investor, do you have a Plan B? With a stock that has appreciated by 67% over the last year, 118% over the last two years and 477% over the last five years, I don't think "I will wait for it to rebound because it always does" is a credible Plan B.

AAPL needs to be perfect next quarter. It needs to do more than crush its own poor excuse for "guidance." Tim Cook has set the bar so high in China that anything less than triple-digit year-over-year revenue growth in that region could be a major disappointment.

If you own AAPL, with or without on-paper gains, and you're not considering and strategizing for less-than-desirable and expected scenarios, you're not really managing a portfolio. You're gambling. It's akin to hoping that the Philadelphia Flyers will bounce back against the New Jersey Devils because, on paper, they're the better and more talented team.

In recent articles on TheStreet, I offered several ways, particularly via options, to hedge and/or generate income from a position in AAPL as well as other stocks.

Try to refrain from being clever like The Macalope in the comments section of this article. Instead, show us your Plan B. Do you even have one?
At the time of publication, the author had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
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