At this moment, we think there is a 50% chance that Apple will beat estimates and will report sales of 35 million iPhones. Those odds are much more appealing with Apple trading at $570 than they were with Apple trading at $644. If AT&T shows better iPhone results than Verizon, then the chances that Apple sells more than 35 million goes up above 50%.
We are going to make our portfolio allocations dependent upon AT&T. Our first move for today is to sell out of the 2% allocation of AAPL April 2012 $600 puts that are up 60% since we bought them on Thursday. Tomorrow, we will add a new 10% allocation of AAPL October 2012 $550 calls if AT&T shows better than Verizon. If AT&T shows that it is sequentially flat or even up over the holiday quarter, then we will add an additional 10% allocation of AAPL May 2012 $560 calls to take advantage of the rapid recovery that will quickly occur.
Earnings season is a volatile time which is why you want to take profits beforehand. By having over 80% of the portfolio at ApplePlusPortfolios.com in cash, we are able to take advantage of unforeseen selloffs. The $90 correction in AAPL marks a great long-term entry point.
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