The reason why I chuckled is because his own estimate was raised from 28.2 million units to 29.5 million. Does Wu realize what would happen if Apple hit his lowball number?
I agree iPhone units could come in between 29 million and 33 million units but when a stock has risen $200 in the quarter there is no appetite to merely meet expectations or to come in below expectations, as Apple-defender Wu suggests.
For the stock to rocket higher in the short run iPhone sales need to be over 35 million.
Why are we not completely out of Apple in the portfolio? Because the over-35 million is possible. But the fact remains that we just don't know. Apple momentum has increased in downside volatility which opens the door to a significant sell-the-news reaction.
Portfolio cash can turn into real wealth if re-invested after Apple dips below $550. We'll be buying a new core position in October 2012 calls should Apple sell off following the report. Owning the October calls at a favorable entry point in advance of the iPhone 5 release is as good as it gets.