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Apple's Downfall Coming

Stocks in this article: AAPL

Jobs made the people around him better. He willed them to accomplish the impossible. This is not to say that Forstall, Ives and Cook, for that matter, are not talented men. Of course, they are. But, without Jobs, their impact cannot be quite the same. For this, Cook deserves a lion's share of the blame.

Cook is doing one of the things that Jobs never would have done as he cemented a unique culture of pride and innovation within the halls of One Infinite Loop. Cook is reacting to what other people want and expect, not going with what he knows is best.

And that's because, unlike Jobs, Cook does not have that ultra-confident knack for knowing what is best. That certainly is not his fault; at the end of the day, relative to Jobs, he's just one of us, but with a boatload of stock options.

Down the Slippery Slope

The shareholders wanted and expected a dividend or a buyback. Tim Cook gave them both. Spend about 30 seconds reading about Jobs and you'll discover that he considered shareholders pests just as he claimed consumers do not know what they want until we (more aptly, I) tell them what they want.

The Chinese Government needs to have CEOs visit them and shake their hands. Jobs never would have done such a thing, despite his fondness for Eastern spirituality and such. At the first public sign of trouble, Cook booked the first flight to Asia.

With so-called mini tablets hitting the streets, the world thinks Apple should build one as well. Quoted by the Associated Press on a 2010 conference call, Steve Jobs explained why he absolutely hated this idea:

"The reason we wouldn't make a 7-inch tablet isn't because we don't want to hit a price point, it's because we don't think you can make a great tablet with a 7-inch screen . . . The 7-inch tablets are tweeners, too big to compete with a smartphone and too small to compete with an iPad."
He said the resolution of the display could be increased to make up for the smaller size, but that would be "meaningless, unless your tablet also includes sandpaper, so that the user can sand down their fingers to around one quarter of the present size."

If Tim Cook listens to the world, chalk another one up for the graffiti artists spraying just a little bit more writing on the wall.

I have seen it reported in several places that, before he passed away, Jobs told Cook to not do what he would do, but to do what is right. That makes for a heartwarming story and takes the edge off of Jobs's pretty hardcore personality.

But doing what is "right" does not mean listening to the world. The "world" is not as smart as Jobs. It's not as smart as the Apple Jobs ran. It doesn't know what it wants until Steve Jobs's Apple tells it. Listening to the "world" is the wrong thing to do.

At the time of publication, the author was long P and had no positions in AAPL or any of the other stocks mentioned. Positions may change at any time.
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