This column originally appeared on Real Money Pro at 7:47 a.m. EDT on April 19.
NEW YORK ( Real Money) -- Below are 12 events that could crater the U.S. stock market:
1. Politics over here. President Obama's Intrade odds of winning the presidential election in November exceeds 65% -- it now stands at 60.5% -- and growing evidence that the Democrats will lose control of the Senate. (On Intrade, the probability of a Republican-controlled Senate now stands at 62%.)
2. Politics over there. Eurozone tail risk reemerges. François Hollande wins French presidency and disrupts EU bailout efforts. (Current Ladbroke odds have Hollande at 1/8, Sarkozy is 9/2.)3. Interest rates. The 10-year U.S. note yield drops below 1.90%. (It now is at 1.99%.) 4. Economic. High-frequency economic data deteriorate, and odds of a recession grow in the U.S. Signs emerge that China and India will land hard. 5. Fiscal cliff. Actually experienced, a fiscal cliff dents the economy, threatens self-sustaining recovery and adversely impacts corporate profits and business/consumer confidence. 6. Deflation. Commodities abruptly turn lower, more deflationary signals. 7. Strategists grow more bullish. Perma-bulls Abby Joseph Cohen at Goldman Sachs (GS - Get Report) and Binky Chadha at Deutsche Bank (DB - Get Report) raise their year-end S&P 500 targets. (Remember their ridiculously optimistic prognostications of 2008 year-end S&P 500 targets of 1650/1675? They were off in their forecasts by a mere 700 S&P points!) 8. Housing. Home prices and sales activity move lower over the balance of the year, negatively impacting consumer confidence and spending. 9. Black swans. Any number of exogenous events -- a Fed policy mistake, crude ramps in price, Middle East tensions escalate, China lands hard and pulls back from U.S. Treasury note and bond purchases (fueling a sharp rise in our interest rates), a large ETF blow up, another flash crash, Sears Holdings (SHLD - Get Report) is forced to sell more stores (it employees 350,000 companywide) and so on. 10. Fund flows. Domestic equity mutual fund outflows accelerate. 11. The NBA -- nothing but Apple (AAPL - Get Report) -- market. Apple experiences a fundamental blip or misstep of execution. 12. Technical deterioration in the markets. The S&P 500 takes out its 200-day moving average.
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