This column originally appeared on Real Money Pro at 7:47 a.m. EDT on April 19.
NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Below are 12 events that could crater the U.S. stock market:
1. Politics over here. President Obama's Intrade odds of winning the presidential election in November exceeds 65% -- it now stands at 60.5% -- and growing evidence that the Democrats will lose control of the Senate. (On Intrade, the probability of a Republican-controlled Senate now stands at 62%.)
2. Politics over there. Eurozone tail risk reemerges. François Hollande wins French presidency and disrupts EU bailout efforts. (Current Ladbroke odds have Hollande at 1/8, Sarkozy is 9/2.)3. Interest rates. The 10-year U.S. note yield drops below 1.90%. (It now is at 1.99%.) 4. Economic. High-frequency economic data deteriorate, and odds of a recession grow in the U.S. Signs emerge that China and India will land hard. 5. Fiscal cliff. Actually experienced, a fiscal cliff dents the economy, threatens self-sustaining recovery and adversely impacts corporate profits and business/consumer confidence. 6. Deflation. Commodities abruptly turn lower, more deflationary signals. 7. Strategists grow more bullish. Perma-bulls Abby Joseph Cohen at Goldman Sachs (GS) and Binky Chadha at Deutsche Bank (DB) raise their year-end S&P 500 targets. (Remember their ridiculously optimistic prognostications of 2008 year-end S&P 500 targets of 1650/1675? They were off in their forecasts by a mere 700 S&P points!) 8. Housing. Home prices and sales activity move lower over the balance of the year, negatively impacting consumer confidence and spending. 9. Black swans. Any number of exogenous events -- a Fed policy mistake, crude ramps in price, Middle East tensions escalate, China lands hard and pulls back from U.S. Treasury note and bond purchases (fueling a sharp rise in our interest rates), a large ETF blow up, another flash crash, Sears Holdings (SHLD) is forced to sell more stores (it employees 350,000 companywide) and so on. 10. Fund flows. Domestic equity mutual fund outflows accelerate. 11. The NBA -- nothing but Apple (AAPL) -- market. Apple experiences a fundamental blip or misstep of execution. 12. Technical deterioration in the markets. The S&P 500 takes out its 200-day moving average.
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