And Iran is not the only supply issue that exists. Further troubles in Egypt, Syria, Sudan, Yemen, Iraq and Libya still threaten smaller but still significant supplies.
Stock markets here in the U.S. have been cooling after a red-hot first quarter, taking risk assets such as oil down with them.
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But, although earnings season isn't inspiring a lot of excitement and confidence, U.S. stocks will continue to be perceived as a relatively strong investment and will continue to attract capital.
In other words, stocks are not falling out of bed. They will likely find strength soon and turn around, taking oil and gas prices with them.In all cases, the greatest risks that dominate oil are to the upside, and oil traders know this. It is far easier to ride a slow downtrend by trading around a long position in oil than it is to be short, always leaving open the overnight disaster that any supply threat could deliver. In sum, I'd like to see oil and gas prices go down significantly, but it just doesn't seem likely.