At our November meeting, we talked about our long-term growth plans, and this is a chart we showed then. It reflected debt-adjusted per share growth rates on production, cash flow and reserves, all double digits, all very strong. And as I looked to that and you can see the drivers on the right, you can see production growing up over the five years by 2016, projecting production at just under 500,000 barrels a day equivalent, strong growth in proven reserves, free cash flow near the end of that period as well.
As I look at those metrics and I look at some of the reports that’s put out in the space, I think I can confidently say that assuming we deliver on that, which is certainly our intent that is ought to make Noble Energy one of the more attractive, perhaps one of the most attractive E&Ps, especially when you can deliver debt-adjusted per share growth of 15% up to 20% on a cash flow basis.
Again, it is about diversification. Today, we’re in five core areas. We added the Marcellus of course last year. But besides the Marcellus onshore, we’ve got the Rockies, primarily Wattenberg in the DJ Basin, the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, offshore West Africa, primarily Equatorial Guinea in the Eastern Med and Israel and now Cyprus with the discovery we announced just before the end of the year.
A little over half of our reserves are international, and you can see production historically has been about 40% oil and some natural gas liquids, 30% U.S. gas and 30% international gas. Although I would say and we’ll be putting out guidance here in a couple of days, we’re seeing a shift more this year to liquids, and that’s driven by the fact we’ve got two big oil projects coming in, Aseng which has already started up in West Africa is oil well and then Galapagos would be predominantly oil as well, as well as what we’re driving in the Niobrara in terms of production.Read the rest of this transcript for free on seekingalpha.com
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