7 Observations About the Euro
4. In addition, there are a number of political events that pose risks to the euro over the next several weeks.
Greece and France hold national elections. In Greece, it is not clear that the current coalition of the Panhellenic Socialist Movement and New Democracy is going to secure a majority, warning of possible concessions to less pro-European smaller parties.
In France, although the first round appears to have tightened, Francois Hollande still enjoys a large lead in the all-important second round.
Italy will hold municipal elections next month, and they will be seen as a referendum on technocrat Prime Minister Mario Monti, whose public support has waned since his push to weaken the infamous Article 18, which ossified the Italian labor market.Germany holds two state elections, which should not be much of a market factor. Further erosion of support for the Free Democratic Party increases the likelihood that next year's national contest produces another Grand Coalition between the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union and the Social Democratic Party. Although Irish referendums have had market impact, this time that is likely to be different. The polls show that a comfortable majority favors approving the fiscal compact. In addition, unlike other referendums, the fiscal compact is to be decided by a qualified majority, which means the unlikely veto would not derail the compact but simply cut Ireland off from further aid, should it be necessary. Lastly, we note that the Dutch government nearly collapsed last week, and while it survived, it has yet to resolve the underlying budget problem. 5. The technical support for the euro has weakened considerably. The breakdown has followed the repeatedly unsuccessful attempts to push through $1.34. The measuring objective of what may be a double top is near $1.3100, but the bottom end of the euro's trading range is closer to $1.2975-$1.3000. The five-day moving average is poised to fall below the 20-day moving average, indicating that short-term trend followers and momentum players are likely to be more inclined to sell rather than buy the euro. Although this signal has whipsawed participants in recent weeks, it does have a good record of catching big moves.
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