NEW YORK ( BBH FX Strategy) -- The March U.S. jobs report will be released Friday, Good Friday, when many European countries are on holiday and the U.S. is partially on holiday. Unlike the proverbial falling tree that may not make a sound if there is no one to hear it, the data will be important even if the lack of market participation prevents much of a reaction.
Given these circumstances, perhaps what will be more useful than a review of the limited inputs that economists use to forecast the nonfarm payrolls report -- which is among the more difficult of the high frequency data to forecast -- would be a more focused look at the vexing problem of the decline in the participation rate.
Let's dispense with the March jobs report by making a few observations. The risk is on the downside of the current consensus of 220,000 private sector jobs for two main reasons.