Hungary's News Means Pressure for HUF
In any case, we still think that there is a lot than can go wrong with the IMF negotiation. Informal talks are scheduled to start this week as the chief negotiator for Hungary, Tamas Fellegi, meets with the IMF.Our sense is that the markets are overly optimistic and complacent about the risks of negative headlines. We prefer to play HUF defensively against the EUR in the run up to the meetings. Even in a positive risk environment, we expect EUR/HUF to stay above the 50- and 100-day MAs, which converge just below the 292 level.
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