This Day On The Street
Continue to site
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here

Currency Outlook for Norway, Sweden

NEW YORK ( BBH FX Strategy) -- The Norwegian krone and Swedish krona are the strongest major currencies Friday, appreciating about 0.85% and 0.6% respectively. While the fundamental justification of the more modest gains in the other major foreign currencies may be more elusive, in the Scandi's case, fundamental developments are supportive.

Sweden reported stronger business and manufacturing confidence numbers earlier this week, but the February retail sales report was a more significant catalyst. Retail sales rose 1.2% in February. The consensus was for a 0.1% rise. The Riksbank's Ekholm suggested Friday the economy appears to have bottomed after a 1.1% contraction in fourth quarter. This week's data seems to further rule out a rate cut in April, which many had previously expected.

If monetary policy may be less accommodative, fiscal policy appears to be a bit looser. The budget authority today revised this year's forecast to a deficit of SEK13 billion from a surplus of SEK1 billion. Similarly, next year is now projected to have a budget deficit of SEK11 billion rather than a surplus of SEK14 billion. As a percent of GDP, this year's deficit is a minor 0.7%, the envy of most of the OECD.

Follow TheStreet on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

On Monday Sweden's PMI will be reported and the economic recovery story is likely to be supported. The consensus calls for an increase to 52 from 50.3. If this does materialize, it will be the strongest reading since last June.

The euro has turned lower from the SEK8.96 area tested several times this month. If that marks the upper end of the range, the lower end comes in around SEK8.75 to SEK8.80. The krona's out performance may also depend on the continued lower level of anxiety in the eurozone (which we are not convinced will be sustained) and to a less extent perhaps evidence of a soft landing in China.


There are four new developments from Norway Friday. Individually and collectively, they are positive for the NOK.

First, the March purchasing managers index jumped to 59.7 from a revised 56.7 reading in February (initially 56.9). The market had looked for something closer to 55.
1 of 2

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Only $9.95
14-Days Free
Dividend Stock Advisor

David Peltier identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Trifecta Stocks

Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutiny—quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis—to maximize profit potential and minimize risk.

Product Features:
  • Model Portfolio
  • Intra Day Trade alerts
  • Access to Quant Ratings
Real Money

More than 30 investing pros with skin in the game give you actionable insight and investment ideas.

Product Features:
  • Access to Jim Cramer's daily blog
  • Intraday commentary and news
  • Real-time trading forums
Only $49.95
14-Days Free
14-Days Free
AAPL $93.74 0.00%
FB $117.58 0.00%
GOOG $693.01 0.00%
TSLA $240.76 0.00%
YHOO $36.60 0.00%


Chart of I:DJI
DOW 17,773.64 -57.12 -0.32%
S&P 500 2,065.30 -10.51 -0.51%
NASDAQ 4,775.3580 -29.9330 -0.62%

Free Reports

Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs