Updated from 8:01 p.m. to add information about Lennar's quarterly report and the after-hours session.
Ben Bernanke rekindled investor hopes that another round of quantitative easing could be in the offing, and suddenly last week's worries about a hard landing in China and rising Spanish bond yields were out the window.
Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, isn't buying the idea that QE3 is back on though, mainly because it's not only up to Big Ben. He sees a fair amount of resistance within the Federal Open Market Committee, specifically Dennis Lockhart and Jeff Lacker, and feels it would be no picnic for Bernanke to get QE3 approved."We remain of the view that Mr. Bernanke could push through more QE now only after a titanic struggle, and that the recent stronger data mean it is effectively off the agenda for now," Shepherdson said. "If our macro view proves correct and the recovery in bank lending broadens and deepens, the labor market and GDP numbers will keep the Fed on the sidelines indefinitely, and its next action will be to start reducing the degree of accommodation rather than easing still further." Meantime, S&P Capital IQ was out with some historical data on Monday that would seem to bode well for stocks from here. It turns out, a double-digit percentage gain for the S&P 500 in the first quarter leads to further appreciation more times than not. "Since 1945, in the eight times that the '500' was up 10% or more in Q1, it gained another 3.3%, on average, in Q2 and rose in price six times, or 75% of the time," wrote Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist. "In the 10 times that the market was up 5% or more in Q1 and Q4 of the prior year, it was up an average 4.0% in Q2 and rose in price an average 60% of the time." April is historically a very good month for the stock market with the S&P 500 up an average 1.57% since 1945, making it the second-best performing month of the year behind December, Stovall said. The outlook for the full year favors more gains as well.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
24/7 market commentary from Jim Cramer and 20+ veteran Wall Street gurus. Get access to the latest trading ideas on stocks, options, and ETFs as well as a real-time forum to see the pros exchanging their investment ideas.
- Jim Cramer + 20 Wall Street pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Real-time trading forum
- Actionable trade ideas
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass + 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV