Stock Giddiness May Create Opportunities
The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.
NEW YORK ( TheGoldAndOilGuy.com) -- This week may provide some trading opportunities for us now that most traders are investors are all giddy about stocks again.
Last week we saw money move out of bonds and into stocks, and the bullish vibe in the air reminds me of many market peaks that were followed by 5%-plus corrections in stocks.
Depending on what the S&P 500 does, we may be going long or short equities, long precious metals or long bonds, and our iPath ETN S&P 500 VIX (VXX) trade may spike in our favor.See the chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) below. After last week's strong move down in bonds as the herd moved out of bonds and into stocks, there may be an opportunity to catch a dip or bounce in the price of bonds. If the stock market sees strong selling this week, money will run back into bonds. See the chart of bond futures below. Looking at precious metals it looks as though gold, gold miners and silver may still head lower this week. The charts are still bearish and pointing to another multiple percentage point drop in value. Gold will look bullish around $1,600, the Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) around $48, and silver around $30, but we need to see one more wave of strong distribution selling for that to take place. See the chart of gold futures below. Crude oil has recovered nicely from its 5-wave correction that shook us out of the trade for a profit. I still like the chart for higher prices, but with it trading at resistance and a high possibility of sellers stepping back in at this level, I am not getting involved here. See the chart of crude oil futures below. The S&P 500 futures have run into sellers early Monday, taking prices straight back down. The chart in premarket looks as though we will see lower stock prices later Monday, and with any luck the fear index (VIX) will continue to rise in our favor. See the chart of the iPath ETN S&P 500 VIX below.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Chart
Bond Futures Chart
Gold Futures Chart
Oil Futures Chart
iPath ETN S&P 500 VIX ChartWatch live video analysis here.
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