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TheStreet Open House

Swift Energy Company's CEO Hosts Investor/Analyst Day (Transcript)

Stock quotes in this article: SFY

You could see by this chart that the natural gas production in the U.S. from 74, back to 74 all the way at present, has had all the seasonal variations from summer to winter and that’s what all of our cycles are at the spikes and valleys, but in general we had that gas bubble in the mid 80s, that we all went through, and then we had the period of declining production in the early 2000 and then we have had this phenomenal change in our industry as a result of resource plays and as a result of technology. We’re going to show you a lot of technology today and of course we’ve seen this incredible increase in natural gas production although it’s a very different than productions from the past. Production from the past came from much more high quality reservoirs in terms of porosity and permeability had much lower declined curves back in the 70s.

Today’s natural gas is more than manufacturing process with much higher declines, but much more certainty in terms of many, many locations to drill as you go forward. You can see the projections from the EIA in terms of gas production going forward; they’re predicting it to be about flat at 65 Bcf a day into the next several years. What this meant for gas prices. Well, here we’ve done the cycle, look, and we go all the way back -- not all the way back, but to January 2001, where we had a really nice peak. And so we index that as zero and say what happens when gas prices go through the cycles and go down and go up. So we’ve taken the peak, January 2001, we saw a cycle that had a bottom about 12 months after the peak. And then it rose again and popped up two years after the peak and came back to the next peak not 48 months later and then we have another cycle that began in March 2003, that cycle had its trough about eight months into that cycle and then a peak 32 months out. And then October 2005 another trough that was pretty flat 40% down for a long period, but about 24 months later, we’ve started rising again to a new peak.

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