This Day On The Street
Continue to site
ADVERTISEMENT
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here

2 ETFs for Continued Strain in the Labor Market

The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.

NEW YORK ( ETF Expert) -- Regardless of what the Bureau of Labor reports on Friday (3/9/2012), job market conditions in the U.S. may actually be softening. For the last three weeks, new jobless claims have headed higher. What’s more, Gallup’s unemployment and underemployment measures show net job gains on the decline.

Considering the fact that voters continue to rank the economy as the number one issue in primary contests, and with gas prices well above $100 per barrel, should one expect the stock market to roll over? Not necessarily.

A genuine job boom might actually put pressure on Treasury bond yields, not to mention the Federal Reserve's promise to keep rates near 0% through 2014. If job creation and GDP both remain modest, however, the Fed would likely continue purchasing seven-to-10-year maturities in the ongoing effort to support business and consumer borrowing. The Fed’s ongoing intervention would also ensure that the spread between earnings yields (E/P) and 10-year Treasuries remains “gynormous.” And investors could conclude that – in the absence of any domestic recession fears – shares of profitable corporations deserve higher prices.

Follow TheStreet on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

As I type, the S&P 500 is precisely at the spot it inhabited on the last day of April… at the previous 52-week high of 1363.61. (We all know what followed in 2011.) However, earnings are 15% higher than they were last April, suggesting that prices could still be fairly valued at a new all-time high for the S&P 500 at 1567. Indeed, it’s nearly impossible to look at today’s stock prices — even if you’re a perma-bear — and argue that equities are fundamentally overvalued.

Naturally, bears do have their honey. Middle East tensions, commodity price inflation and “boxed-in” Fed policy decisions could weigh on sentiment. The endless European debt disaster as well as slower growth from China could also sink stock ships.

Nevertheless, pullbacks, mini-corrections and profit-taking are likely to empower institutional advisers to take more risk in 2012. Why? Because the street adage, “Don’t fight the Fed” now extends to the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China. All of the world’s major economies intend to maintain ultra-accommodative policies — policies that practically force investors further out on the risk ladder. In essence, big money is not going to fight the world’s central banks.
1 of 2

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Only $9.95
14-Days Free
Dividend Stock Advisor

David Peltier identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Trifecta Stocks

Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutiny—quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis—to maximize profit potential and minimize risk.

Product Features:
  • Model Portfolio
  • Intra Day Trade alerts
  • Access to Quant Ratings
Options Profits

Our options trading pros provide over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • Actionable options commentary and news
  • Real-time trading community
SYM TRADE IT LAST %CHG
AAPL $125.42 0.72%
FB $85.76 -0.04%
GOOG $520.60 -0.18%
TSLA $268.26 2.38%
YHOO $39.29 0.98%

Markets

DOW 17,619.51 +23.16 0.13%
S&P 500 2,063.12 +5.48 0.27%
NASDAQ 4,986.8670 +28.3990 0.57%

Free Reports

Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs