2. Pandora's Morrison Moment
Remember when Jim Morrison crooned "When the music's over, turn out the lights" back in 1967? Well, based on Pandora's (P) performance this week, maybe The Doors singer was offering stock advice from beyond the grave.
Hey! He was the Lizard King you know.Shares of the Internet radio station were snakebitten Wednesday, falling 25%, after the company reported a wider-than-expected loss for its fiscal fourth quarter and offered even uglier guidance for the full year. Pandora reported a loss of 3 cents a share, on revenue of $81.3 million. Wall Street analysts, however, were anticipating a loss of 2 cents a share on revenue of $83.1 million. And while that's bad, especially compared with the two surprise profits the company posted since going public last June at $16, it was really the company's full-year guidance that failed to light Wall Street's fire. For the full fiscal year ending in January 2013, the company expects a non-GAAP loss of 11 to 16 cents a share on revenue of $410 million to $420 million. The current average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters is for a profit of a penny per share on revenue of $418.3 million. And aside from the shellacking in the stock, it appears that "this is the end" -- to quote Jim again -- for the company's free pass from some of its friends on Wall Street. And by friends, we mean underwriters. Citigroup's Mark Mahaney, for example, downgraded the shares to neutral from buy and cut his price target to $17 from $25, writing: "We initiated on Pandora with a Buy/High Risk last July with the stock at $18. That call clearly hasn't worked." Mahaney added that "with no profitability track record and no near-term profitable outlook -- Pandora always carried very little margin for error. And now there's error." Other investment bankers, sorry, research analysts, like the ones from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley slashed their price targets, but reiterated their overweight ratings on the stock based on the jump in the company's listener hours. In their views, monetization and profitability will eventually follow the music, but it's just going to take a little longer than they originally anticipated. Sure guys. If that ridiculous reasoning gets you a spot in the secondary offering, then go for it. But as for us, you can just "cancel our subscription to the resurrection" of this stock because it's clearly not coming back. As for Mr. Mojo Risin' ... well, he's another story.
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