The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.
NEW YORK (
TheStreet) -- The four remaining candidates for the Republican presidential nomination have been running hard, and this week's Super Tuesday primaries are likely to winnow the field. It still seems likely that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney will be the eventual winner, though it remains to be seen whether the protracted and sometimes bloody battle for the nomination has made him a better candidate or has left lingering concerns in the minds of voters.
Ultimately, though, it may not matter. President Obama will be re-elected, and here's why:
The Iraq war is over. When President Obama was elected, the U.S. was embroiled in a messy and expensive war in Iraq. The mission had become muddled, and President Bush's premature declaration of victory hadn't brought our exhausted troops home. Obama kept his promise to end the Iraq war and, along the way, succeeded in killing Osama bin Laden and several of his key advisors. Now, Obama is starting to wind up the war in Afghanistan. Making peace is a great way to win elections.
The economy is recovering
. The market crash of 2008 and the recession that followed put the country through its toughest times since the Great Depression. It's not at all clear that presidents can do much to turn our economy around, but voters blame presidents when the economy is bad and reward them when things improve. It's probably too soon to be certain that the economy won't slump back into recession but, if the stock market continues to rise and unemployment falls, President Obama will likely get the credit whether he deserves it or not.
10 Reasons Obama Will Not Be Re-Elected
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The Detroit bailout worked
. When President Obama took office, the U.S. automobile industry was in such a shambles that some experts thought its complete demise was inevitable. Obama took some serious criticism for agreeing to bail out U.S. automakers, but the program was a success. The president recently boasted to the United Auto Workers annual conference that the big three automakers are turning profits, opening new factories and hiring again. The industry has added more than 200,000 jobs and is building more fuel-efficient cars to boot. Detroit voters will remember that -- and so will manufacturing workers from other industries.
"Don't ask, don't tell" is over
. President Obama kept his promise to repeal a federal law requiring homosexuals to stay closeted if they served in the Armed Forces. Now, gay men and women can serve openly. This change may not please conservative voters (who likely wouldn't have voted for Obama anyway), but gay voters will approve, as will more liberal voters who supported the repeal.
Health care reform is here
. The president's health care reform bill has taken a lot of criticism from the Republican nominees. But for voters who needed health insurance or who were paying for expensive prescription drugs, the new law could be a real godsend. Overall, health care reform is likely to help the president more than it hurts him.