U.S. Investors Brace for a Third Bailout in Greece
Although that is not enough for Credit Suisse to raise weightings to "overweight," Garthwaite says he would continue to be a buyer of the German DAX, specifically mentioning companies like BMW, Bayer, SAP (SAP) and Siemens (SI), domestic German names like Hugo Boss and ProSiebenSat and, interestingly, Italian risk. He says he would avoid French risk and remains relatively cautious on Spain.
Deutsche Bank commodities analyst Michael Hsueh, meanwhile, notes that commodities have performed strongly over recent days leading up to the second Greek bailout. Hsueh argues that with the deal out of the way, contagion risk in the euro area will subside and attention will move back towards commodity fundamentals. That could mean further gains for oil prices "with U.S. consumers likely to be more resilient to higher gasoline prices today than in 2008."
Others on the sell-side are cautious on equities, however, without even taking Europe into account. For example, Citigroup U.S. equity strategist Tobias Levkovich on Tuesday said in a research note that he sees a fairly low probability of market appreciation due to the disappointing momentum of earnings revisions.
"Earnings estimate revisions are not supportive of the stock market surge," Levkovich wrote. "Typically, there is a tighter relationship between earnings and the S&P 500 and the divergence is worrying in the short term."Levkovich did not alter Citi's year-end target of 1,425, and he says that the near-term concerns with ongoing bullishness for 2012 and buying on weakness makes sense rather than chasing the tape. For those investors still worried about Europe, though, it seems the question is whether the second Greek bailout solves the crisis or whether it's just another successful delay in extending the crisis indefinitely. Given how often Greece has been in default or restructuring, it seems to be that the latter is a smarter bet. -- Written by Robert Holmes in Boston.
>To contact the writer of this article, click here: Robert Holmes.
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