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Spotting the Bond Bubbles

U.S. Treasury Bonds are beyond any doubt the biggest asset bubble since the subprime mortgage fallout of 2008. It's a bubble that will not come with wholesale bankruptcies like in 2008, but it sure could hurt the typical, unknowing investor that is using a volatility-based risk assessment. Asian stocks are probably the least risky asset class in the world, since the price of those securities is still down a bit from their highs and the long-term growth potential is stellar.

Today, U.S. and European stocks are getting the limelight, but they cannot go anywhere without the Asian economies. Why? Because the Asians are the manufacturers and creditor nations, making them the engine of growth of the middle class. Their markets are not doing as well because they are trying to control the inflation being exported from money growth abroad.

The U.S. and European markets are not bad, risky investments based on a price basis. It's just that the Asian economies and markets are a far better long-term risk reward proposition.

I have learned two things about investing in my career as a comprehensive, fee-Only financial planner. First, never invest in a greed- or fear-based market (1999 was a greed-based market, thanks to the dotcoms). Second, never invest in a manipulated market other than for a short period (silver was a market manipulated by the Hunt brothers in 1979). Today, the U.S. Treasury Bond market is saturated in fear from investors who lost tremendous amounts over the past four years, and it's a market heavily manipulated by the Federal Reserve. No matter why investors are fearful or who is manipulating the bond market ... buyer beware.

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Andrew Tignanelli, CFP, CPA, is president of Financial Consulate, based in Hunt Valley, Md., and a member of NAPFA, the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors.

This commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet guest contributor program. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of TheStreet or its management.
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