Market Preview: Coke Lacks Fizz

Updated from 8:22 p.m. ET to add Goldman commentary on the rally in the bank stocks this year, additional analyst comment on Panera, Disney.

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The action in stocks Monday was really more of a mild headache than a hangover as the question of what's next for Greece continues to linger.

Judging by the low volatility so far in 2012 and the modest decline to start this week, there's no deep fear of a default just yet. Crunch time is more than a month away, so the latest chatter has some roots in impatience and boredom. Brown Brothers Harriman noted earlier, though, that it's not only the private holders of Greek's debt that need to be placated.

"All signs point to an eventual PSI [private sector involvement] deal, but what is now more uncertain is whether Greece's coalition government can agree on an additional 1.5% of GDP in savings as demanded by the Troika before it can receive the next tranche of aid from the IMF/EU," the firm said. "These funds are needed by mid-March, when a huge slug of debt matures (over EUR14 billion) and must be rolled over. Some coalition members have already signaled unwillingness to pass more austerity measures, and so it seems Greek disorderly default risks will remain elevated even if PSI agreement is reached."

Much of the fortuitous calm that stocks have enjoyed so far in 2012 is being credited to the success of the European Central Bank's long-term refinancing operation, which was unveiled in early December, and there's another operation on the docket for later this month, the prospect of which may be helping buoy stocks at the moment.

Gary Thayer, chief macro strategist at Wells Fargo, thinks market psychology is still in the early stages of recovery from the extreme volatility that took hold last summer, despite the 20%-plus run-up in the S&P 500 since early October.

"We have been saying for the past few months that the European debt crisis was probably at about the same stage that the U.S. financial crisis was in late 2008 and early 2009," he said in commentary released Monday. "Back then, policymakers were taking significant steps to increase liquidity but investors were still skeptical and did not think that these policies would work. The European debt crisis appears to be following a similar path."