"Fundamentals are still very much in place," says Adrian Day, president of Day Asset Management. There is "concern about easy money in U.S. and Europe and China and elsewhere and concern about global monetary system." The IMF forecast that China would grow 8.2% in 2012, but that it could shed up to 4 percentage points from its target if Europe enters a deep recession. The EU imported 281.9 billion euros worth of goods from China in 2010, up 31% from a year earlier. If China's growth does come under pressure, the expectation is that the Central Bank will pump more yuan into the system in the form of interest rate cuts or by lowering the amount of money banks must hold in their reserves.
More money in the system is typically good for gold, but a recent problem has been, especially in developed countries, that the money supply increases but banks don't lend that money. Day thinks at some point that will reverse, "money that is created doesn't go away, it has to go somewhere ... [and] that is positive for gold."
Mark Arbeter, chief technical strategist at S&P Capital IQ, says that he is bullish on gold due to the weak dollar policy in the U.S. "The next major hurdle for gold is chart resistance at $1,800 an ounce." Arbeter says that "gold sentiment recently hit its lowest level since late 2008 and considering that gold has been one of the strongest markets over the past 10 years, we think this supports much higher prices."
Gold mining stocks
were struggling Monday.
(KGC - Get Report)
was down slightly at $11.11 while
was 2.19% lower at $8.95.
Other gold stocks,
(AEM - Get Report)
(EGO - Get Report)
were mixed at $36.67 and $14.51, respectively.
(GOLD - Get Report)
was bucking the trend and was up 1.47% at $117.88 after the company announced it made $1.25 a share in the fourth quarter on revenue of $311.5 million. Gold production was up 4% vs. a year ago, profit was up 259% and cash costs were down $1. The company raised its dividend by 100% and said gold production for 2012 would be 19% higher, albeit at the lower end of the range. Cash costs are expected to fall to $650 an ounce and towards the $500 an ounce range by 2014 as the company mines higher grade gold.
Written by Alix Steel in
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