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Market Preview: Big Gain Hangover


Charles Biderman, TrimTabs' CEO, wonders whether the decidedly positive turn in the employment data just as an election year begins isn't politically motivated, calling the numbers from the BLS "suspiciously high."

"Actual jobs outstanding, not seasonally adjusted, are down 2.9 million over the past two months," Biderman says. "It is only after seasonal adjustments -- made at the sole discretion of the Bureau of Labor Statistics economists -- that 2.9 million fewer jobs gets translated into 446,000 new seasonally adjusted jobs."

He continued: "No one I know has any idea how the BLS does its seasonal adjustments. The BLS revises historic data every month for several months until actual payroll data is used to benchmark the BLS data almost a year in arrears. In other words, the BLS currently has accurate data for March 2011 and before."

Either way, be on the lookout for a potential big gain hangover on Monday.

So far this year, the Dow is up 5.3%, its best start to a year since 1997. The S&P 500 is up 6.9% in 2012, its fastest jump out of the gate since 1987 (although that didn't turn out so well). The Nasdaq Composite has surged an incredible 11.5%, pushing the index to heights unseen in more than a decade.

FactSet Research offered up some analysis on Friday of why stocks seem to be getting a pass on a ho-hum earnings season (excluding Apple (AAPL)), saying that the buy side is slowing getting more optimistic about 2012 as a whole.

"Looking at bottoms-up EPS estimates for the index, analysts are calling for a drop in earnings in Q1 2012 relative to Q4 2011," the firm said in commentary on Friday. "But after Q1 2012, earnings are projected to continue to increase for the remainder of 2012. It is also interesting to note that while the bottoms-up EPS estimates for Q1 2012 through Q3 2012 have recorded declines since December 31, the bottoms-up EPS estimate for Q4 2012 has remained unchanged during this time frame."

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