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Market Preview: Big Gain Hangover


NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- The big game is following a big gain for stocks, and sorry Patriot fans, but one outcome bodes better than the other.

According to data from S&P Capital IQ, when New England wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 has on average lost 2.1% for the year. Conversely, when the Pats fail in their quest for the Lombardi trophy, the index has risen 5% on average.

The Giants have won the Super Bowl three times, and the average performance in the wake of their wins is a negative 0.5%, but this includes the wreckage wrought by the financial crisis in 2008 when the S&P 500 dropped 37%.

In the other two years that the Giants won, 1987 and 1991, the market was up 5.1% and 30.5%, respectively. When the Giants lost to Baltimore Ravens in 2001, the market finished the year down 11.9%.

This is all small sample-size stuff, of course, and S&P Capital IQ, which makes clear the analysis is intended to be lighthearted and not the basis for any investment decisions, provides plenty of data points that fans from either side can hang their hat on. For example, years when the home team wins -- this year that's the Pats -- the S&P 500 has risen an average of 17%.

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Rooting for the G-Men? When the NFC wins, the market has risen an average of 15% vs. a 7% gain in years when the AFC comes out on top. There are also some positives to be gleaned for neutral observers as the five previous Super Bowl rematches have yielded 19% returns on average. Both teams have also previously won Super Bowls, another good sign, as the S&P 500 has jumped an average of 13% in years when a former champion returns and wins.

Meantime, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was finally able to book its second triple-digit swing of the year on Friday, as the January jobs report came in much better than expected. Or did it?

Research firm TrimTabs took issue with the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the wake of the data, which said nonfarm payrolls swelled by 243,000 and the unemployment rate decreased to 8.3%. TrimTabs concentrates on income tax collection data for its job estimates, and its calculations put total job growth at 83,000 for the December-January period, much lower than the 446,000 reported by the federal government.

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