The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.
NEW YORK (The FRED Report) -- Here at The FRED Report we recently completed a review of the currency ETFs and we noticed some interesting technical patterns we will discuss here (for general markets update video -- click here). These patterns are particularly interesting in the European currencies, because they are actually contrary to what the news would lead investors to expect. But remember - the markets are a "discounting mechanism" -- and it may very well be that European problems may already be factored into the current environment! We show charts below.
First, we look at the weekly chart of the FXE (Euro Trust). Notice the layers of support between 125 and 127 - these have held. Second, look at the stochastic and notice that it is just perking about the 20 area. This is suggesting the possibility of a near-term rally in the euro, and given the risk of Greek default and the key date of March 20 -- an upmove now would certainly be a surprise.
Second we look at the FXF (Swiss Franc), perhaps the only currency left in the world that is backed by gold. The weekly chart here shows a bottoming pattern as well. Notice how there was government intervention to lower the value of the currency in August of 2011 (the big spike on the chart). The Swiss has been stronger than the euro but normally trades in line -- that relationship did break down during 2011. But, if the euro rallies, the Swiss should outperform. Last, take a look at the FXB (British Pound) - another alternative to the euro (FXE). It should also outperform on a rally in the euro, and is a bit more liquid than the Swiss. At The FRED Report, we have been bullish on the dollar for much of the past year, and that has worked well for us. It is likely that we will see a change in the currency trading patterns over the next six months. Interested readers may email me for a copy of this report. While the dollar may still have a strong 2012, it looks ready to start an intermediate decline. What bigger surprise for the markets than for this to occur as the Greek crisis matures? While this trading idea is risky, it seems worth a try if adequate risk management is used.
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