This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here
TheStreet Open House

Emerging-Market Central Bank Preview

Hungary, Tuesday, 13:00 GMT: We agree with the majority of analysts, who expect the MNB to continue tightening by 50 basis points, but the chance of a surprise has increased a lot in recent days.

If it were not for the currency risks, the central banks would be on an easing path. Economic numbers have generally come on the weak side and are expected to worsen substantially this year given the declining confidence in the economy and likely credit contraction by banks.

Positive sentiment toward the forint continues on more supportive comments about Hungary's prospects of getting an agreement with the IMF, but we do not think it is enough to change the central bank's cautious stance.

There is a long road from here until an actual agreement is reached, and sentiment toward HUF could change quickly with just one negative headline.

In the near term, however, we still see EUR/HUF testing the 300 level should risk appetite hold up, and it could be a good level to establish new longs given our skepticism about Hungary.

Thailand, Wednesday 07:30 GMT: The combination of weaker global demand and the protracted economic impacts of the floods are likely drive Thailand's central bank to deliver another cut of 25 basis points, to 3.00%, at Wednesday's meeting.

Recent comments from Governor Prasarn support this view. However, it is possible that the bank will adopt a wait-and-see approach after this meeting.

The bank recently increased its 2012 GDP forecast from 4.1% to 4.8% on the back of expected stimulus from government reconstruction spending.

Moreover, inflation pressures remain relatively high, though lower import prices will help cap the upside.

USD/THB has come sharply lower along with other regional currencies after failing to break the 32.0 level a few weeks ago. The next key level to watch would be the 50-day moving average at 31.32.

With China likely avoiding a hard landing this year, we remain constructive on the stronger regional emerging-market credits such as Thailand.

This commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet guest contributor program. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of TheStreet or its management.
2 of 2

Select the service that is right for you!

COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Action Alerts PLUS
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
  • Weekly roundups
TheStreet Quant Ratings
Try it NOW
Only $49.95/yr

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
  • Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Stocks Under $10
Try it NOW

David Peltier, uncovers low dollar stocks with extraordinary upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
  • Weekly roundups
Dividend Stock Advisor
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
  • Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Real Money Pro
Try it NOW

All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.

Product Features:
  • Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
  • Intraday commentary & news
  • Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Options Profits
Try it NOW

Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • 100+ monthly options trading ideas
  • Actionable options commentary & news
  • Real-time trading community
  • Options TV
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
Submit an article to us!
DOW 17,279.74 +13.75 0.08%
S&P 500 2,010.40 -0.96 -0.05%
NASDAQ 4,579.7890 -13.6380 -0.30%

Brokerage Partners

Rates from Bankrate.com

  • Mortgage
  • Credit Cards
  • Auto

Free Newsletters from TheStreet

My Subscriptions:

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

Register for Newsletters
Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs