With yields low, investors seeking income are tempted to seek yield in other sectors where real rates of return after inflation can be found. Higher yields have traditionally been found in so-called High-Yield (Junk) bonds with even greater historical returns from Emerging Markets.
With High-Yield bonds a unique condition occurred after the bottom of the 2008 bear market in equities. Companies once considered investment grade, particularly in the financial sector, suddenly were found in the junk category. As many of these companies were bailed-out or subsidized by the government the sector became more attractive to opportunistic investors. Demand for yield and return of capital also stimulated investors no longer as interested in equities due to previous heavy losses. Further, demographics with an aging baby boomer population also fed the demand for both yield and perceived safety. Why junk then? The momentum from equities to bonds was strong and this combined with the dissatisfaction with low yields from more credit worthy sectors. Investors have rationalized greater safety in government subsidies than credit ratings would indicate to gain more yield.
Nevertheless, High-Yield and Emerging Market Bonds have historically traded at certain "spreads" to higher rated debt. These spreads given odd factor of nearly zero interest rate policies in the U.S., the unique circumstances cited within the High-Yield sector and economic growth in Emerging Markets seem to have tightened spread differentials to the naked eye given low yields. But, in actuality these spreads seem within traditional wide ranges.
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Liquidity below average We feature a technical view of conditions from monthly chart views. Simplistically, we recommend longer-term investors stay on the right side of the 12 month simple moving average. When prices are above the moving average, stay long, and when below remain in cash or short. Some more interested in a fundamental approach may not care so much about technical issues preferring instead to buy when prices are perceived as low and sell for other reasons when high; but, this is not our approach. Premium members to the ETF Digest receive added signals when markets become extended such as DeMark triggers to exit overbought/oversold conditions.
In U.S. high yield, two issues remain overwhelmingly dominant--HYG and JNK. The rest are interesting in the second tier.
- Citigroup 7%: 0.89%
- HCA 6.5%: 0.78%
- First Data 12.625%: 0.73%
- Citigroup 7%: 0.69%
- Sprint Nextel 144A 9%: 0.67%
- Intelsat Bermuda 11.25%: 0.67%
- Harrahs Operations 11.25%: 0.58%
- Lyondell Chemical 11%: 0.58%
- Ally Financial 8.3%: 0.57%
- Calpine 7.5%: 0.56%
#2: SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)- HCA 6.5%: 1.54%
- Sprint Nextel 144A 9%: 1.44%
- First Data 12.625%: 1.27%
- Energy Future International 10%: 1.16%
- Harrahs Operations 10%: 1.12%
- Citigroup 7%: 1.10%
- Clear Channel 9.25%: 1.10%
- FMG Resources August 2006 Pty 7%: 1.01%
- Calpine 7.5%: 0.97%
- Dish Network 6.75%: 0.97%
#3: PowerShares Fundamental High Yield Bond ETF (PHB)- Weyerhaeuser 7.375%: 1.56%
- Intl Lease Fin 8.625%: 1.47%
- Sears Hldgs 6.625%: 1.35%
- Sprint Nextel 6%: 1.29%
- Ford Motor Credit Co 8%: 1.26%
- Ford Motor Credit Co 7%: 1.22%
- Supervalue 8%: 1.21%
- Kinder Morgan Fin Corp Ulc 5.7%: 1.06%
- Hertz 6.75%: 1.05%
- Williams Cos Inc Del 7.875%: 1.05%
#4: PIMCO High Yield Bond ETF (HYS)- Ally Financial 4.5%: 2.31%
- Citigroup 7%: 2.20%
- Qwest Communications 8%: 1.73%
- Ford Motor Credit Co 8%: 1.68%
- HCA 6.5%: 1.61%
- MGM Resorts Intl 10.375%: 1.57%
- International Lease 144A 6.5%: 1.38%
- Regions Financial Corp New 7.75%: 1.24%
- Echostar 7.125%: 1.23%
- CHS Community Health Sys 8.875%: 1.09%
#5: PowerShares Senior Loan Portfolio ETF (BKLN)- First Data Corp 09/24/14: 2.93%
- Tribune Company 06/04/14: 2.46%
- Springleaf Financial 05/10/17: 1.86%
- Intelsat Jackson 04/02/18: 1.83%
- First Data Corp 03/24/18: 1.79%
- Reynolds Group Issuer 144A 7.875%: 1.73%
- Harrah's Operations 01/28/15: 1.70%
- Clear Channel Tl 1/29/16: 1.69%
- Charter Communications 09/06/16: 1.59%
- CSC Holdings, I 03/29/16: 1.55%
#6: Advisor Shares Peritus High Yield ETF (HYLD) - SGS Intl 12%: 4.20%
- Poindexter J B 8.75%: 3.31%
- Connacher Oil & Gas 8.5%: 3.25%
- Sanmina Sci 144A 7%: 3.11%
- Harland Clarke Hldgs 9.5%: 3.10%
- Air Canada 144A 12%: 2.98%
- Unifi 11.5%: 2.97%
- AEP Industries 8.25%: 2.96%
- Valassis Communications 6.625%: 2.86%
- Level 3 Financing 9.25%: 2.76%
- Philippines Rep 7.75%: 4.49%
- Russian Federation 7.5%: 3.83%
- Republic Of Turkey 7.25%: 3.31%
- Republic Of Turkey 6.875%: 3.23%
- Brazil Federative Rep 7.125%: 3.18%
- Peru Rep 6.55%: 2.83%
- Indonesia(Rep Of) 6.875%: 2.68%
- Colombia Rep 7.375%: 2.48%
- Republica Oriental Del Uruguay 7.625%: 2.33%
- Petronas Cap 5.25%: 2.27%
#2: PowerShares Emerging Markets Debt ETF (PCY)- Bulgaria Rep 8.25%: 4.09%
- Korea Rep 5.125%: 2.16%
- Vietnam Socialist Rep 6.75%: 2.13%
- Korea Rep 7.125%: 2.11%
- Islamic Rep Pakistan 6.875%: 2.11%
- Vietnam(Soc Rep) 6.875%: 2.02%
- Islamic Rep Pakistan 7.125%: 1.85%
- Indonesia(Rep Of) 6.625%: 1.66%
- Brazil Federative Rep 7.125%: 1.66%
- United Mexican Sts Mtn Be 6.05%: 1.65%
#3: Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund (ELD)- Russian Federation 7.85%: 3.83%
- Chile Rep 5.5%: 3.31%
- Brazil Federative Rep 10.25%: 3.28%
- Brazil Federative Rep 12.5%: 3.12%
- Malaysia 4.012%: 2.81%
- Malaysia: 2.78%
- Philippines Rep 4.95%: 2.32%
- Malaysia 4.378%: 2.31%
- Indonesia(Rep Of) 8.375%: 2.31%
- Malaysia 3.835%: 2.20%
#4: Wisdom Tree Asia Local Debt ETF (ALD)- Indonesia(Rep Of) 7.375%: 4.46%
- Korea(Republic Of) 4.5%: 3.97%
- Korea(Republic Of) 3.75%: 3.91%
- Malaysia 4.012%: 3.86%
- Philippines Rep 4.95%: 3.68%
- Malaysia 3.21%: 3.46%
- Korea(Republic Of) 4%: 3.18%
- Thailand(Kingdom) 5.25%: 3.08%
- Australia 6.25%: 2.99%
- Thailand(Kingdom) 5.25%: 2.98%
Mixing High Yield with Emerging Market Debt/Bonds may seem unusual but there aren't enough issues for a standalone top 10 report. That said, the two sectors share mutual interest from investors seeking to maximize yield. Recently it seems investor enthusiasm is going a little overboard and throwing caution to the wind in this drive for yield. I would advise caution here. But having been a bond principal previously the old maxim "the thing you know most is what you like least" sometimes applies.
It's also important to remember that ETF sponsors have their own competitive business interests when issuing products which may not necessarily align with your investment needs. New ETFs from highly regarded and substantial new providers are also being issued. These may include Charles Schwab's ETFs and Scottrade's Focus Shares which both are issuing new ETFs with low expense ratios and commission free trading at their respective firms. These may also become popular as they become seasoned.
For further information about portfolio structures using technical indicators like DeMark and other indicators, take a free 14-day trial at ETF Digest. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook as well and join our group conversations.
You may address any feedback to: feedback@etfdigest.com
The ETF Digest has no current positions in the featured ETFs.
(Source for data is from ETF sponsors and various ETF data providers)
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