Against the Spread: 2011 NFL Picks: Divisional Playoffs

BOSTON (TheStreet) -- My NFL picks against the spread need a Tebow-like miracle this week in order to get above water, especially with so few NFL games left to be played this season.

My poor record at picking NFL games against the spread has spilled over from the regular season, with my picks going 1-3 last weekend. As all of my picks last week were underdogs, that means the favorites are dominating in the playoffs so far. Only Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos saved me from a major goose egg for the Wild Card round. And, of course, many other bettors like me were cursing the end to that game where the Detroit Lions failed to get a backdoor cover against the New Orleans Saints.

Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos)

While many of the smart bettors found that last weekend's game had lines that weren't very exploitable from a value perspective, there is a lot to like about the spreads for games in the Divisional round of the playoffs. Three of this weekend's four games have spreads greater than 7 points. And most interestingly, the Saints are only the second road team ever to be favored in the Divisional round.

Paul Bessire, the general manager and creator of the Web site PredictionMachine.com, says that three of his picks this week have greater value than any of his model's picks last week. Bessire's model, which simulates each contest 50,000 times to come up with a pick against the spread, hit 59% of its picks against the spread this season and was a perfect 11-0 in the playoffs last year.

"For a league where the popular perception is that offenses provide all of the relevant headlines and there are only three elite teams (with elite offenses), those elite teams and those teams with the offensive edges are overvalued," Bessire says. "All four underdogs provide unique and significant challenges to their opponents that should keep them in their games and give them a strong chance to win outright."

"In this round, a team getting one week of rest is getting more of an advantage than the public usually gives them," adds Bryan Leonard, a professional sports handicapper with Pregame.com who is also part of the Tuesday Group, a collection of professional bettors in Las Vegas who get together to handicap the games each week.

"It's a big advantage to have that extra week this late in the season," Leonard says of the bye week that top-seeded teams got last week. "Home favorites of 7 points or more are beating the spread by about 2 points when they have that week off."

With that, it's on to the picks for the Divisional round of the playoffs. These are for entertainment purposes only. Once again, I have enlisted the help of PredictionMachine.com's Bessire, who offers analysis of the data his model provides for each of the playoff games I've picked this week.

Pregame.com's Leonard also offers his thoughts, picks and analysis, which focuses on the spread movement by Vegas oddsmakers to determine where the public and professional money is moving on each game. These trends prove to be critical for bettors who are on the hunt for inefficiencies and value.

Read on for the first game pick, where the New Orleans Saints travel as favorites to the play the rested underdog San Francisco 49ers. And as always, I encourage you to leave comments below with your favorite picks against the spread this week.