Gold-Silver Price Ratio Getting Silly Again

The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.

NEW YORK (BullionBullsCanada) -- Although both the gold and silver markets have been subjected to extreme manipulation, it is clear that manipulation of the silver market has been much more severe. There are two related numbers which illustrate this point.

Knowledgeable investors know that the long-term price ratio of gold versus silver (i.e. over roughly 5,000 years) has averaged approximately 15:1. This closely coincides with the ratio of the natural occurrence of these two elements in the Earth's crust (approximately 17:1). Not only did this price ratio remain relatively constant over several millennia, but the fact that the price ratio so closely mirrors the rate of occurrence of the two metals shows that (in relative terms) our species has demonstrated a roughly equal preference for the two metals throughout recorded history.

These facts establish beyond any possible contradiction that over the medium or long term the price of silver must remain at close to a 15:1 ratio versus the price of gold. There is only one factor which could alter this arithmetic: if our preference toward the two metals changed. Has any such change in preferences occurred? Yes. Silver has become much more popular.

This increased popularity comes in two distinct forms. Modern technology has established silver as the most valuable/versatile of all metals, with more new silver-based patents being created than for any other metal. Along with that there has been an even more stunning/dramatic surge in investor demand for silver -- a consequence of silver being perennially and extremely undervalued.

In 2011, the United States sold nearly 40 million Silver Eagle 1-oz coins while only selling approximately 1 million Gold Eagles -- a near 40:1 ratio. This ratio is more than double the 5,000-year price ratio, and more than double the relative natural occurrence of silver. In other words, over the long-term this demand profile is totally unsustainable -- and must result in (first) the total depletion of silver inventories, and (second) a rise in the price of silver sufficient to stifle silver demand sufficiently for balance to be restored.

However, the demand profile of silver is literally only half the story here -- and the supply-side illustrates the futility of bankster manipulation in even more absolute terms. Given that silver is 17 times more plentiful in the Earth's crust, we would expect the world's mining industry to be producing about 17 times as much silver as gold each year. In fact actual production numbers are nowhere near this ratio.