Biotech Buyside Predictions for 2012

Some other predictions from Schoenebaum's survey:

An average of 37% of respondents believe Vertex's "combo trial" cystic fibrosis will yield unambiguously positive results.

Just 29% of investors believe FDA will approve Onyx Pharma's (ONXX) multiple myeloma drug carfilzomib based on phase II data.

Celgene gets a vote of confidence with 65% of respondents believing European regulators grant full approval to Revlimid as a front-line therapy for multiple myeloma.

Gilead's (Pharmasset) PSI-7977 will yield a "cure rate" of 72% when results of a phase II study are announced this spring.

Biggest upside surprises for 2012:
"JNJ acquires VRTX"
"Stimuvax actually works in Phase III"
"Mark will stop sending out surveys like this one!!"
"ANTH Lupus works - monthly injection, making long term oppo for benlysta small"
"Solaneuzimab fails miserably (no surprise), but bapineuzumab works well enough to have a legit shot at approval based on subgroup efficacy."
"Celgene's Phase III Abraxane+Gemcitabine in metastatic pancreatic is stopped early due to highly statistically significant OS benefit versus gemcitabine and becomes standard of care (already covered by NCCN guidelines based on Phase II)"
"AMGEN BECOMES A GROWTH STORY AGAIN"
"YMI takeout"
"Targacept has a positive trial"
""VVUS gets Qnexa approved post panel meeting"

Biggest downside surprises for 2012:
"People will realize that ALXN has no patent protection beyond 2017 in EU and ROW and that the enobia acquisition will show their desperation to acquire around that."
"Continued lack of robust M&A"
"YMI - based on its ASH poster in Dec' 11 on its myelofibrosis drug CYT387, YMI has raised hopes of being able to treat anemia in sickle cell disease and thalassemia patients. These hopes will be dashed in '12."
"INHX trials halted for safety"
"Vertex combination CF data fails to impress"
"Bg12 trial patient gets PML"
"MNTA - a short"
"TIE: ONTY misses survival endpoint in Ph3 lung cancer trial and VVUS has to do a large CV outcomes trial a la OREX."
"The Mayans were right..."
"EU dings CELG"
"AMRN DOES NOT FIND A PARTNER OR GET ACQUIRED"
"New ceo at AMGN will be same dud as Kevin [Sharer]"
"Regeneron's Eylea will be a total wash-out Human Genome and Dendreon both file for bankruptcy"
"Pharmasset / Gilead (VRUS / GILD) PSI-7977 fails to achieve SVR of 80%, leaving all US sell-side analysts with their pants down and GILD share tumbling."

--Written by Adam Feuerstein in Boston.



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Adam Feuerstein writes regularly for TheStreet. In keeping with company editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks, although he owns stock in TheStreet. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. Feuerstein appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

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