BOSTON (TheStreet) -- Gilead Sciences (GILD) is the most loved biotech stock; Amgen (AMGN) the most hated. New drug launches by Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) will blow. Dendreon (DNDN) is in for another rough year.
These are some of the thoughts and predictions of biotech's buyside investors for 2012, compiled by ISI Group analyst Mark Schoenebaum. His survey, completed by 266 institutional investors, isn't exactly scientific, but it does provide an interesting window into the minds of Wall Street's biotech crowd.
When asked to name their favorite biotech stock for 2012, 12% of investors picked Gilead Sciences, followed by Celgene (CELG) with around 8% of the popular vote. Biogen Idec (BIIB), Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) round out the top five faves.
Amgen was chosen as the least favorite biotech stock for 2012 by 12% of investors in the ISI Group-Schoenebaum survey. Gilead was second with a bit less than 8% of the vote, which likely reflects the love-hate thing investors have with the $11 billion Pharmasset (VRUS) acquisition. Celgene, Dendreon and Biogen Idec ranked 3-5 on the hated list.No surprise seeing Dendreon land on list of bio-hazards given Provenge's epic fail last year. Investors aren't enthused about the prospect of a turnaround in 2012 either: 50% forecast Provenge will miss 2012 sales expectations. The other 50% split almost evenly between Provenge meeting and beating expectations this year. Investor attitudes towards all drug launches seems surly, a continuation of the "short the launch" trend firmly established last year as a winning trading strategy. Forty-one percent of investors predict Regeneron's Eylea launch will fail to meet expectations, with 32% saying the launch will meet sales forecasts and 27% taking the optimistic "beat" line. Amylin's looming Bydureon diabetes launch is likewise viewed with pessimism. Half the respondents predict a miss, with 29% and 22% forecasting "meet" and "beat," respectively. The only faint glimmer of optimism about drug launches in Schoenebaum's survey comes from Human Genome Sciences (HGSI), where 42% of investors believe the lupus drug Benlysta can meet consensus sales expectations for 2012. Of course, Human Genome so badly failed with the Benlysta launch last year that the stock already bakes in a ton of negativity.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
24/7 market commentary from Jim Cramer and 20+ veteran Wall Street gurus. Get access to the latest trading ideas on stocks, options, and ETFs as well as a real-time forum to see the pros exchanging their investment ideas.
- Jim Cramer + 20 Wall Street pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Real-time trading forum
- Actionable trade ideas
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass + 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV