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Bullish, Bearish ETF Trends in 2011

Here's another unsettling ETF trend. If someone offered you a diversified investment of global transporters with a collective P/E of 8, a P/S of 0.6 and a yield of 7.5%, would the possibility pique your interest? It should. However, the Guggenheim Shipping Fund (SEA) has been on a painful voyage to nowhere.

Last, but hardly least, 2011 has been the year of the "euro." U.S. stock assets and the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) climbed in tandem throughout the first four months of the year. The record run-up for equities in October can also be attributed to renewed euro-zone confidence, albeit brief.

Of course, no matter how you dissect it, the price of FXE is far below its 200-day trendline. It has given up a stunning 12% from the April stock market highs. Equally disconcerting, FXE is trolling the depths of year-over-year lows.

In essence, it's difficult to see 2012 breaking free from the euro-net out of the gate. Risk assets may need a bolder initiative out of the region's leaders. Moreover, if shares of mining companies and shipping companies can't get on a more positive track, one might begin to see even more deterioration of resource-rich exporters from Australia to Brazil to South Africa.

On the flip side, there are many reasons to believe that China will come to the rescue -- in more ways than one. Its leaders have deftly tamed inflation and are beginning to initiate accommodative fiscal/monetary policies . With it, we should see increased demand for more world resources as well as the shippers who ship those resources.

Additionally, if multinational transporters weren't transacting a substantial amount of business, would the iShares DJ Transportation Fund (IYT) be above its 200-day MA? Would IYT be setting "higher lows" in three consecutive months, surging a remarkable 22% off the October lows? Clearly, the bulls have ammunition of their own.

You can listen to the ETF Expert Radio Show "LIVE", via podcast or on your iPod. You can follow me on Twitter @ETFexpert.

Disclosure Statement: ETF Expert is a website that makes the world of ETFs easier to understand. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial and/or its clients may hold positions in ETFs, mutual funds and investment assets mentioned. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert website. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships. You may review additional ETF Expert at the site.
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