Update: Please submit your own 2012 biotech stock predictions at the end of this story.
) -- Ten biotech predictions for 2012:
strategy of returning cash to shareholders in form of share buybacks, Dutch tender offers and dividends is abandoned in favor of ramped up acquisitions i.e.
. Large-cap biotech firms start acting like Big Pharma -- choosing to buy growth instead of seeking it from internal drug development.
2. After much wrangling, lawmakers pass important PDUFA V legislation but it's amended to prohibit FDA from issuing drug approval decisions on Friday evenings.
3. Cancer immunothera-flop: Phase III cancer "vaccine" studies being run by
(Stimuvax in non-small cell lung cancer) and
(VICL - Get Report)
(Allovectin in melanoma) both fail. The only positive clinical news in cancer immunotherapy in 2012 will come from
with its Mage-A3 therapy, in phase III for melanoma.
4. By the end of the year, one or more of these companies will be gobbled up in an M&A deal:
(CELG - Get Report)
(MNTA - Get Report)
exits 2012 the same way it started -- with pixantrone still not approved anywhere. The only changes at the company will be to its share count and executive compensation -- both higher; and stock price -- lower.
(AEZS - Get Report)
despite a half-dozen additional Seeking Alpha articles penned by "Jeremy Richards" claiming otherwise.
7. Leucovorin shortages end, so too does
cystic fibrosis drug Kalydeco will be approved. More importantly, studies testing Kalydeco combined with other Vertex's cystic fibrosis drugs will show strong benefit in a larger swath of patients. Vertex becomes a cystic fibrosis company. Hepatitis C? What's that?
9. FDA rejects obesity drugs from
(ARNA - Get Report)
for a second time.
(CELG - Get Report)
will be the best-performing large-cap (market cap greater than $10 billion) biotech stock in 2012.
Happy 2012! If you have predictions of your own for the coming year, please share in the comments section below.
Here's a look back at how well my
1. Cell Therapeutics will increase its share count to 2 billion, followed by a 60:1 reverse stock split. Pixantrone still isn't approved.
Correct. My numbers were off a bit. Cell Therapeutics didn't bloat its share count quite that high but came close. Pixantrone still not approved.